OVERVIEW:  Our projection for September was maintained this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole. Temps are currently near to very slightly above average in most areas month-to-date, but the cooler stretch through this weekend should allow monthly mean temperatures to balance. October projections were also maintained this week for another near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• Seasonal changes are going to be become more noticeable in the weeks ahead as we continue to lower average highs/lows, and that downward process accelerates from this point forward to about a 3.0°F drop per week. The extreme heat is likely behind us, but there will still be some warmer days yet that near or reach the 80° mark a few days next week. Climate models have continued to suggest an up-and-down temperature pattern in October, which balances any slightly below and slightly above periods to near average.
   
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in a very weak phase1 signal, and is expected to quickly collapse into the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase over the weekend. Hurricane activity should remain limited at best with a strong El Niño increasing Atlantic shear despite reaching the peak of Atlantic hurricane season September 10th. In fact, this is the longest we’ve gone without an Atlantic Basin hurricane since 1966 in the modern satellite era, which is pretty remarkable. It is also the longest stretch in the pre-satellite era since 1914… a season where no hurricanes were present.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in moderate to strong El Niño territory currently. The following are Coral Reef Watch Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly values referenced in this context. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently the “coolest” region at +1.2°C, whereas the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +3.2°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +4.0°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at an astounding +5.0°C as of September 23rd. A near-record strong El Niño Fall is likely to continue, and is currently East-based.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 72-76°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 3°F lower than at this point last week. The drop off in temperatures are now accelerating downward from this point forward to about a 3°F per week drop. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the below average temperatures listed for the September 26th-28th period features highs in the lower to upper 60s, coming at a time when average highs are in the lower to middle 70s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location, which has now been updated from October 1st through November 15th.

Our September projection was maintained this week to a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure. October projections were also maintained this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends. November temperature trends lean near to slightly cooler than average.