OVERVIEW:  October will finish with temperatures near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) for the month as a whole. November projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, using long term climate guidance and global observation trends. December trends are for temperatures leaning milder overall, but could start cooler with the effects of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. Actual December projections will be included in next week’s long range outlook update.

• Seasonal changes are now becoming more noticeable as we continue further into Fall and average highs/lows steadily lower. That downward process is now about a 3.0°F drop per week. The expectation for November is for temperatures to be slightly above average as a whole, with most of the month fitting that narrative, and a return to near average at the tail end of the month, predicated on the aforementioned SSW event.
  
  
• Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event:  Toward the end of the first week of November, a historically early SSW event is expected, with possible zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa. This could have implications on our sensible weather to begin December depending on several factors, including how it couples with the troposphere below, and what area(s) within the Northern Hemisphere the cooler anomalies affect. The weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex will likely consolidate and recover rather quickly over the polar regions in mid-late November, and may become exceptionally strong following the disruption. Many unknowns currently, and we will follow it in the coming weeks. 
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 2 (Indian Ocean) and is expected to migrate into phase 3 by the 2nd week of November, then the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase past mid-November. The eventual pattern becomes more Pacific-driven, where temperatures are generally milder overall with a Pacific jet influence. This pattern is also rather zonal in nature, which brings more frequent precipitation events. Hurricane activity, what little activity there was this year, will continue to wind down over the next month. Atlantic hurricane season will come to an end November 30th.
  
  
• A composite average of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTa) in the ENSO regions places it in very strong El Niño territory currently. The following are Coral Reef Watch Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly values found at https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/ are referenced in this context. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently the “coolest” region at +1.4°C, whereas the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +3.3°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +4.3°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at an astounding +5.3°C as of October 28th. A near-record strong El Niño Fall is likely to continue and peak in November, and currently an East-based El Niño.

   

Average high temperatures are currently in the 58-64°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 3°F lower than at this point last week. The drop off in temps will continue throughout Fall at about a 2-3°F per week drop. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to understand that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year. For example, the slightly above to above average temperatures listed in the November 2nd-6th period features highs in the mid to upper 60s and even some lower 70s, coming at a time when average highs are in the 55-60° range. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through December 15th.