Precipitation:
OVERVIEW: The big story in May was the absence of precipitation, and in some areas the previous month finished with record low rainfall, and between 2.5″ and 3.5″ below average as a composite average of the major climate locations within our coverage area. The first half of June also likely starts out drier than average as an extension of the very dry May. but ensembles continue to suggest the 2nd half of June will begin to turn wetter…albeit “near normal” precipitation. The combination of a dry first half of June and slightly wetter finish should allow precipitation to finish near to slightly below average (0.0″ to -1.0″) for the month as a whole, and not enough certainly to offset the very dry May and reestablished year-to-date deficits. We are optimistic that July turns a bit wetter relative to average, but this may be more related to thunderstorms in the expected hotter and more humid environment. Our opening bid for July is near to slightly above average (0.0″ to +1.0″) rainfall.
Shorter term, a backdoor cold front crosses the region Saturday, but unfortunately there is not much precipitation associated with it. Some isolated and spotty light hit-or-miss showers will be possible mainly in parts of Central and Northern PA, and mainly dry elsewhere. An upper level low situated to our north across New England midweek could bring a few showers rotating around it in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, but more likely Wednesday as afternoon instability pop-ups. The next opportunity will come with a cold front the following Monday, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with that frontal passage.
Our projection for the month of June as a whole was adjusted this week to near to slightly below average (0.0″ to -1.0″) as a generally dry first half of the month is expected and near average during the back half of June. The opening bid for the month of July as a whole is a bit more optimistic, with near to slightly above average (0.0″ to +1.0″) projected currently. With the expected hotter and more humid temperatures relative to average in July, this could be mostly tied to an increased amount of convection.
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YouTube channel/daily forecast video: https://www.youtube.com/user/eastpaweather
Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
June 3rd – June 9th: Slightly below average
June 10th – June 16th: Near to slightly below average
June 17th – June 23rd: Near to slightly above average
June 24th – June 30th: Near to slightly above average
July 1st – July 7th: Near to slightly above average
July 8th – July 14th: Near to slightly above average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
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