OVERVIEW:  Our projection for October was maintained this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with the expectation of cooler than average days balancing the milder days over the remainder of this month. November projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• Seasonal changes are going to be become more noticeable in the weeks ahead as we continue to lower average highs/lows, and that downward process is now about a 3.0°F drop per week. Summerlike heat is now behind us, although temperatures reaching the 70° mark is not over quite yet, especially in SE areas. The expectation for November is for temperatures to be slightly above average as a whole, with most of the month fitting that narrative, and a return to near average late November and early December.
   
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, and is expected to migrate into phase 1 in the coming days, then phase 2 by early November. The eventual pattern becomes more Pacific-driven, where temperatures are generally milder overall with a Pacific jet influence. This pattern is also rather zonal in nature, which brings more frequent precipitation events. Hurricane activity should remain limited at best with a strong El Niño increasing Atlantic shear despite reaching the peak of Atlantic hurricane season September 10th. Until Isaias became a hurricane earlier this month, it was the longest we’ve gone without an Atlantic Basin hurricane since 1966 in the modern satellite era. It’s also the longest stretch in the pre-satellite era since 1914, a season where no hurricanes were present, or at least none that were documented.
  
  
• A composite average of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTa) in the ENSO regions places it in strong El Niño territory currently. The following are Coral Reef Watch Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly values referenced in this context. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently the “coolest” region at +1.1°C, whereas the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +3.3°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +4.3°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at an astounding +5.3°C as of October 21st. A near-record strong El Niño Fall is likely to continue and peak in November, and currently East-based.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 61-67°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F lower than at this point last week. The drop off in temps will continue throughout Fall at about a 2-3°F per week drop. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year. For example, the slightly above to above average temperatures listed in the October 29th through November 3rd period features highs in the mid to upper 60s, coming at a time when average highs are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through December 15th.