OVERVIEW:  November projections were slightly adjusted this week to an above average (+2.0°F to +4.0°F) temperature departure, using long term climate guidance and global observation trends. December temperature projections were introduced this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) as our opening bid for the month as a whole, largely due to delayed downstream effects from an ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. 

• Seasonal changes are now becoming more noticeable as we continue further into Fall and average highs/lows steadily lower. That downward process is now about a 3.0°F drop per week. The expectation for November is for temperatures to be above average as a whole, with most of the month fitting that narrative with some shorter-term transient cooler shots mixed in for good measure. A return to near average at the tail end of the month, predicated on the effects of the aforementioned SSW event.
  
  
• Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event:  A historically early SSW event is ongoing, with possible zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa toward the end of next week. This could have implications on our sensible weather to begin December depending on several factors, including how it couples with the troposphere, and what area(s) within the Northern Hemisphere the cooler anomalies affect. The weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex will likely consolidate and recover rather quickly over the polar regions in late November, and may become exceptionally strong following the disruption. We continue to feel that there will be at least some local effects in December, and perhaps an early season snow event.

   

• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 2 (Indian Ocean) and is expected to migrate into phase 3 during the 2nd week of November, then the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase past mid-November. The eventual pattern becomes more Pacific-driven, where temperatures are generally milder overall with a Pacific jet influence. Hurricane activity, with little activity this year, will continue to wind down over the next month. Atlantic hurricane season will come to an end November 30th.

   

• A composite average of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTa) in the ENSO regions places it in very strong El Niño territory currently. The following are Coral Reef Watch Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly values found at https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/ are referenced in this context. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently the “coolest” region at +1.4°C, whereas the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +3.2°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +4.3°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at an astounding +5.8°C as of November 5th. A near-record strong El Niño Fall is likely to continue and peak this month, and is currently an East-based El Niño.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 55-61°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 3°F lower than at this point last week. The drop off in temps will continue throughout Fall at about a 2-3°F per week drop. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to understand that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year. For example, the slightly above average temperatures listed in the November 17th-20th period features highs in the 60-65° range, coming at a time when average highs are on either side of the middle 50s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through December 15th.