OVERVIEW:  Our projections for the month of June were slightly adjusted this week for a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, with ridging dominating the first 3 weeks of the month, and only slightly cooler over the last 7-10 days of June. July projections were maintained this week for a near average (-0.5°F to -0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• June is shaping up to be warmer than average during the first 3 weeks of the month, and generally near to slightly below average thereafter. Despite this late month “cooler” period relative to average, the month is still likely to finish slightly above average thanks to ridging dominating the first 2-3 weeks of June. Although there can be shorter term temperature fluctuations above or below average in July, the larger picture of July is more likely to follow the Summer El Niño paradigm, and fairly close to average temps.
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 8 in the Western Hemisphere, and is expected to maintain there over the next week or so. Afterwards, we expect a collapse into the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, maintaining there through at least early July. This propagation would suggest a general fast-moving pattern with near average temperatures late June and July as we transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño.
  
  

• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in El Niño territory currently. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently +1.2°C, and the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +1.3°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +1.5°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at +2.5°C as of June 3rd. The threshold for El Niño begins at +0.5°C as a composite average of the ENSO regions, and although not officially declared by the CPC, it is the expected transition, and an El Niño Summer and Fall will follow. There are delayed El Niño effects to our sensible weather pattern, and that transition is expected in July with a more typical El Niño Summer paradigm.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 77-80°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Climatological annual maximum temperatures will be achieved in mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the above average temperatures listed for June 10th-13th features highs in the low to mid 90s, coming at a time when average highs are in the lower 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location through July 15th.

The projections for the month of June were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, with a ridging-dominated first 2-3 weeks of the month expected and only slightly cooler to end the month. July projections were maintained this week for the same near average (-0.5°F to +0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.