OVERVIEW:  Projections for June were maintained this week for a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, with notably warmer temperatures moving in at the tail end of the month. July projections were adjusted to a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• June is currently 0.0°F to +2.0°F month-to-date across the majority of the region, with the exception of +3.0°F or greater in the I-95 heat island locations such as Newark and Philadelphia. Ridging will begin to move in around June 29th/30th which will allow the monthly temperatures to overall increase to the +1.0°F to +3.0°F territory by month’s end. Although there can be shorter term temperature fluctuations above or below average in July, the larger picture of month as a whole is likely to follow the Summer El Niño paradigm, and closer to average temps after a hot start over the first week or so. 

   

• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, and is expected to move into phase 5 briefly this weekend, quickly followed by a phase 6 propagation through the first week of July, then phase 7 for weeks 2 and 3 of July. This movement would support the ridging expected during the first week of July, followed by a near average temperature pattern over the remainder of July as we transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño, and limited Atlantic hurricane activity.

   

• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in El Niño territory currently. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently +1.2°C, and the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +1.6°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +1.9°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at +3.0°C as of June 24th. The threshold for El Niño begins at +0.5°C as a composite average of the ENSO regions and has been officially declared by the CPC as of last week. An El Niño Summer and Fall will follow. There are delayed El Niño effects to our sensible weather pattern, and that transition is expected in July with a more typical El Niño Summer paradigm.
  
  
• Chatter has been surrounding the potential for a “Super” El Niño and one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record heading into the Fall and Winter months. While this is indeed a possibility, there is still a large spread and uncertainty among climate model guidance regarding the intensity of El Niño at that time. This chatter has gained traction through various media sources, but it is simply too early to call in terms of how strong El Niño will eventually get… and henceforth the downstream implications on Fall and Winter are also unknown variables at this time. We will continue to monitor in the months ahead.

   

Average high temperatures are currently in the 83-86°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Climatological annual maximum temperatures will be achieved in mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the above average temperatures listed for the June 30th to July 4th period features highs 90s, including some mid to upper 90s days, coming at a time when average highs are in the mid to upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location through August 1st.

The projections for the month of June were maintained this week for a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, with the expectation of ridging and heat building in to end the month of June. July projections were slightly adjusted this week to a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends, although July will begin on a hotter note as indicated.