OVERVIEW:  Projections for July were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with above average temperatures to this point, and very slightly cooler temperatures relative to average largely expected over the remainder of this month. Our August projections are for another near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• July is currently 1.0°F to +3.0°F month-to-date across the majority of the region, and we expect [overall] very slightly cooler than average temperatures over much of the remainder of the month. This should allow the numbers to come down a little, but likely still falls between the 0.0°F and +2.0°F range by month’s end. Although there can be shorter term temperature fluctuations above or below average in August, the larger picture of month as a whole is likely to follow the Summer El Niño paradigm, and closer to average temperatures that may lean only very slightly warmer than average.
   
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 8, and is expected to remain there for the next few days. By early next week, a collapse into the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase is likely. During the first week of August, a migration into phase 6 is expected by both GEFS and EPS guidance. This movement would support the troughing and slightly cooler temps expected through the end of July, followed by a near to slightly above average temperature pattern to begin August. Hurricane activity should remain limited at best with a strong El Niño controlling the Atlantic shear.

   

• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in moderate to strong El Niño territory currently. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently +1.1°C, whereas the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +2.4°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +2.6°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at +3.7°C as of July 22nd. The threshold for El Niño begins at +0.5°C as a composite average of the ENSO regions and has been officially declared by the CPC in June. An El Niño Summer is likely to be followed by a strong El Niño Fall. A more typical El Niño Summer paradigm is expected in August.

   

Average high temperatures are currently in the 85-88°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is at the maximum climatological temperatures for the entire year. Temperatures will remain at these annual maximums for the next few days, then will only very slowly drop off in August. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly below average temperatures listed for the July 28th-30th period features highs in the lower 80s, coming at a time when average highs are in the mid to upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location through September 15th.

The projections for the month of July were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with the expectation of some slightly cooler than average risks to end the month. Our August projections are for another near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends, following fairly closely to the typical August El Niño paradigm.