OVERVIEW:  Our projections for the month of June were slightly adjusted this week to a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with ridging continuing through this weekend, then largely near to slightly cooler than average over much of the 2nd half of June. July projections were maintained this week for a near average (-0.5°F to -0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• June will be warmer than average through this weekend and one day next week ahead of a cold front, but generally near to slightly below average over the remainder of the month. Despite this late month “cooler” period relative to average, the month is still likely to finish near to slightly above average thanks to ridging dominating the first half of June. Although there can be shorter term temperature fluctuations above or below average in July, the larger picture of month as a whole is more likely to follow the Summer El Niño paradigm, and fairly close to average temperatures.

   

• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 8 in the Western Hemisphere, and is expected to move into phase 1 over the next week or so before collapsing into the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, maintaining there through at least through the end of June. This propagation would suggest a near to slightly below average temperature pattern late June and July as we transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño.

   

• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in El Niño territory currently. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently +1.3°C, and the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +1.4°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +1.6°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at +2.8°C as of June 10th. The threshold for El Niño begins at +0.5°C as a composite average of the ENSO regions, and although not officially declared by the CPC, it is the expected transition, and an El Niño Summer and Fall will follow. There are delayed El Niño effects to our sensible weather pattern, and that transition is expected in July with a more typical El Niño Summer paradigm.
  
  
• Chatter has been surrounding the potential for a “Super” El Niño and one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record heading into the Fall and Winter months. While this is indeed a possibility, there is still a large spread and uncertainty among climate model guidance regarding the intensity of El Niño at that time. This chatter has gained traction through various media sources, but it is simply too early to call in terms of how strong El Niño will eventually get… and henceforth the downstream implications on Fall and Winter are also unknown variables at this time. We will continue to monitor in the months ahead.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 79-82°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Climatological annual maximum temperatures will be achieved in mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the above average temperatures listed for this weekend features highs in the 85-90° range, coming at a time when average highs are in the lower 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location through August 1st.

The projections for the month of June were slightly adjusted this week to a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with a ridging continuing through this weekend, then largely near to slightly cooler than average over much of the 2nd half of June. July projections were maintained this week for the same near average (-0.5°F to +0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.