OVERVIEW:  Projections for June were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with generally +2.0°F to +4.0°F above average to this point, then largely slightly cooler than average over the final 10 days of June to balance somewhat. July projections were also maintained for a near average (-0.5°F to -0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• June is currently +2.0°F to +4.0°F month-to-date across the majority of the region, but generally slightly below average temperatures anticipated over the remainder of the month will likely balance these numbers somewhat. Despite this late month “cooler” period relative to average, the month is still likely to finish near to slightly above average thanks to ridging dominating the first half of June. Although there can be shorter term temperature fluctuations above or below average in July, the larger picture of month as a whole is likely to follow the Summer El Niño paradigm, and closer to average temps.
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, and will maintain there through mid-late week next week. A propagation into phase 6 is expected to end of June, then perhaps phase 7 toward the end of the 2nd week of July. This movement would support a near average temperature pattern overall in July as we transition from ENSO neutral to El Niño, and limited Atlantic hurricane activity.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in El Niño territory currently. From west to east across the Pacific, the Niño 4 (west-central Pacific) is currently +1.3°C, and the Niño 3.4 region (east-central Pacific) is currently at +1.6°C. The eastern regions of Niño 3 (east-central Pacific) is currently +1.8°C, and Niño 1+2 region (near the Peruvian coast) is at +3.0°C as of June 17th. The threshold for El Niño begins at +0.5°C as a composite average of the ENSO regions and has been officially declared by the CPC as of this week. An El Niño Summer and Fall will follow. There are delayed El Niño effects to our sensible weather pattern, and that transition is expected in July with a more typical El Niño Summer paradigm.

   

• Chatter has been surrounding the potential for a “Super” El Niño and one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record heading into the Fall and Winter months. While this is indeed a possibility, there is still a large spread and uncertainty among climate model guidance regarding the intensity of El Niño at that time. This chatter has gained traction through various media sources, but it is simply too early to call in terms of how strong El Niño will eventually get… and henceforth the downstream implications on Fall and Winter are also unknown variables at this time. We will continue to monitor in the months ahead.
  
  

Average high temperatures are currently in the 81-84°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Climatological annual maximum temperatures will be achieved in mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly below average temperatures listed for the June 22nd-28th period features highs generally in the lower 80s, coming at a time when average highs are in the mid to upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing transparency for what average temperatures are expected to be at each corresponding location through August 1st.

The projections for the month of June were maintained this week to a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure, with the expectation of a slightly cooler than average finish to the month of June. July projections were maintained this week for the same near average (-0.5°F to +0.5°F) temperature departure using long term climate guidance and global observation trends, although July may begin on a wamer note as indicated.