MLB opening day games in jeopardy?

Some models indicate opening day may be interrupted by rain in Philly, Baltimore, New York

Major League Baseball (MLB) begins the regular season schedule this Thursday March 28th. Three teams specifically with local ties to our region are scheduled to play Thursday afternoon at home, and there is a possibility that rain could alter those plans. The three local teams that are schedule to play home games that afternoon are:

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, scheduled start time is 1:10 PM

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled start time is 3:05 PM

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles, scheduled start time is 3:05 PM

The two other local teams, the New York Yankees and the Pittsburgh Pirates will open on the road this year in Houston and Miami respectively. To set the stage for this possible rain, a cold front will approach midweek and a few showers will be possible as the weakening front moves through on Wednesday and overnight. ALL models indicate an area of low pressure developing along the frontal boundary near the Carolinas, but what it does and where it tracks is still uncertain. But aside from the NAM guidance today, all others have been more progressive with any showers.


The NAM is currently one of the more aggressive solutions that has rain affecting all three home games, with a slow-moving front allowing for rain to affect those locations through late afternoon. This wetter scenario would lead to delayed starts at a minimum

The European guidance has been more progressive with the front, and as of its latest run, precipitation remains SE of I-95, which means all three locations would be mostly if not entirely dry in this scenario. From it’s previous runs, there has been a clear and steady SE trend on the European guidance.

The shorter range guidance while in range, is still not in effective range, and it has been bouncing around over the past several model cycles with not only the axis and placement of rain, but also when it ends. There are a lot of moving parts in addition to the games themselves that contribute to opening day of baseball. On-field introductions of players, colorful ceremonies, and a lot of behind-the-scenes preparation that goes into that day in particular over your normal trip to the ballpark on most other days. Is this a situation where rain avoids those three locations entirely allowing those games to be played – or perhaps after a delayed start like the NAM suggests? Those questions will be answered by Wednesday, but we are trending in the direction certainly of getting these games in on Thursday.

The most influential feature that will dictate the speed of the cold front and whether the developing low near the Carolinas affects Thursday or not is high pressure and ridging near Newfoundland. A stronger high or one that is stubborn to move increases the likelihood of rain on Thursday.

All three teams have a scheduled day off Friday, and presently there are no issues or interruptions expected for that day other than breezy conditions and a bit cooler. If rain becomes a factor on Thursday, whether it is logistically possible to move the games will be up to the individual MLB teams and the league office. Delayed starts are also a possibility, but again, that will come down to timing of the end of precipitation at the three locations in question, and today’s trends show a scenario where little if any disruption occurs. We will be following this system closely, and have a vested interest in assisting clients making informed decisions. This article will be updated daily in the days leading up to opening day so that fans planning to attend will be fully prepared with what may… or may not come.

Article last updated: Monday March 26th, 2024 at 3:10 PM

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