EPAWA's weekly Long Range Outlook

EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Friday February 14th, 2025, 10:15 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) has maintained the moderate to severe drought areas over much of our region as of their latest update, and the severe drought category includes parts of Central and interior Southern New Jersey, East Central PA and Southeast PA, Eastern Maryland, and most of Delaware. Also maintained was the extreme drought designation in coastal Southern New Jersey and a small area in Sussex County Delaware. This has been maintained since precipitation was generally near average in December (not enough to offset the extreme deficits of the Autumn months) and was followed by a solidly below average precipitation departure in January. We do expect a significant turnaround in the months ahead however. Expectations for the month of February as a whole was maintained this week for a solidly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure, with a more active pattern of both storm frequency and storm track. The February projection of snowfall was also maintained above average, and this is largely due to an wintry pattern expected, and two different winter storm threats in the week ahead. March projections were maintained this week for another slightly above average precipitation (+0.5" to +1.0") departure for the month as a whole and for now, the snowfall projection is near average.

Shorter term, we have another overrunning event that is expected to move in Saturday afternoon, and will feature various precipitation types, but there looks to be more in the way of snow for northeastern areas at least at the onset. This system is moving ahead of a warm front that is tied to a strong parent low in the Tennessee Valley. High pressure over far southeastern Canada will create a cold air damming (cold air supply) set-up initially which allows the wintry precipitation at the onset. As that high retreats and the low moves west of our region Saturday night and Sunday, warm air advection will allow wintry precipitation to turn to rain. A cold front associated with the same system follows Sunday afternoon with rain, then turning quite windy behind it Sunday evening through Monday with cold air advection. A previously listed Winter storm signal last week has been moved into the "actual Winter storm" category this week which has high upside to produce a heavy snow event with a coastal low. If the storm is too progressive and too far E/SE, snow amounts will be less. This is still not a guarantee for a major hit, but we'll monitor it closely over the next several days. Another Winter storm signal was placed in the February 25th-26th time frame, which outlines a favorable period for accumulating snow to occur, but is not a guarantee for snow at any given location.

The projection for the month of February is for an above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. Ensemble guidance maintains the idea of a wetter (overall) stretch over the next two weeks, and with precipitation departures over the past several months running below average, any precipitation in any form will be welcomed. Snowfall we listed as above average for February in this week's update. The month of March projection was also maintained this week for another slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.0") precipitation departure for the month as a whole, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends. We continue to project near average snowfall for March.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

February 15th - February 21st: Above average

February 22nd - February 28th: Near to slightly below average

March 1st - March 7th: Near to slightly above average

March 8th - March 14th: Slightly above average

March 15th - March 21st: Slightly above average

March 22nd - March 28th: Near to slightly above average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Another overrunning precipitation event is expected to arrive late Saturday and continue into the overnight. Snow to sleet to freezing rain is expected, with more front end snow for NE areas
Going beyond to next Thursday, a previously listed Winter storm signal is now gaining steam for what has high upside potential for snow with a coastal low, but a farther E/SE track would yield less

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  February temperature projections were maintained this week to a slightly below average (-1.0°F to -3.0°F) temperature departure, and this was due to the fact that temperatures across the region are generally near to slightly below average currently to this point, and the projections of temperature going forward are overall slightly below to at times below average for the remainder of February. The month of March projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly below average (0.0°F to -2.0°F) temperature departure, using longer term climate guidance and global observation trends.

  • The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently entering phase 8 in the Western Pacific, which is a typically a colder (overall) phase in a -ENSO during the month of February. It is expected to continue through phase 8 for a least several days, but there is about a 7-day lag time to feel the sensible effects of phase 8 tropical forcing. This in part is what is lending some credibility to the Winter storm threat around the 20th. From there models vary on both the length of time spent in phase 8 and where it goes from there, with most agreeing on low-amplitude forcing and perhaps a collapse into the Circle of Death or NULL phase, or continuing into phase 1 prior to the collapse. The current pattern of systems cutting to our west with some wintry overrunning at the onset is a result of where we came from... MJO phases 6 and 7 which are milder phases where the SE ridge is able to expand.  
  • Blocking has become well established over Greenland this week. It is east-based currently, but is expected to becoming west-based in the next few days. The importance of this blocking is that it forces the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) farther south over Hudson Bay, which in turn forces colder air farther south. This will contribute to a very cold stretch over the majority of next week, and also plays a role in a possible coastal storm Wednesday night and Thursday.
  • Tropical forcing effects of the prior phases it came from (phases 6 and 7) are being realized this week. This promotes the SE ridge expansion and forces systems to cut to our west, leading to a wintry onset, then rain like we are expecting over the weekend. Although currently in phase 8, the effects of this phase will likely not be realized as far as our sensible weather changes are concerned until next week. 
  • A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in weak La Niña territory (below -0.5°C) currently, and the Climate Prediction Center proclaimed that the threshold for a weak La Niña had been reached in late December. But Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) are notably rising just within the past week. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific) has spiked to +0.8°C this week and the ENSO 3 region currently is near -0.0°C. The ENSO regions 3.4 and 4 are between -0.5°C and -0.6°C, and solidly a weak La Niña for now. This background state when combined with tropical forcing can lead to a stronger SE ridge influence in February in particular, but intra-seasonal teleconnections can allow for a colder and more wintry outcome as we are expecting nearer term.

Average high temperatures are currently in the 39-44 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 1-2°F higher than last week. Average high and low temperatures will very slowly begin to rebound through February. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the below to well below average temperatures listed for February 17th-23rd generally features highs in the 20s to lower 30s, coming at a time when average highs are generally in the lower to middle 40s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference for what average is at each corresponding location through March 31st.

The month of February projections were maintained this week for a slightly below average (-1.0°F to -3.0°F) temperature departure from average. This is due to overwhelming ensemble support for a colder overall look to the next two weeks with intra-seasonal teleconnections muting the effects of the [typically milder] SE ridge influences nearer term. The month of March projection was maintained this week for a near to slightly below average (0.0°F to -2.0°F) temperature departure, using longer term climate guidance and global observation trends.

 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Average temperatures over the next 6 weeks are shown above at our major climate sites throughout the region, with temperatures slowing increasing in February, then accelerating past the equinox
Average snowfall for February and March are listed here, which peaks from a climatological standpoint in February and lowers considerably in March; averages based on the 1991-2020 climate period

Long Range Outlook Table

Date(s)ThreatsSignificanceConfidence
2/15TemperatureBelow averageVery high
2/16TemperatureSlightly above averageVery high
2/17-2/23TemperatureBelow to well below averageHigh
2/24-2/28TemperatureSlightly below averageModerately high
3/1-3/7TemperatureSlightly below averageModerate
3/8-3/14TemperatureSlightly below averageModerately low
3/15-3/21TemperatureNear averageLow
3/22-3/28TemperatureNear to slightly below averageVery low
2/15Snow/wintry mixAn overrunning precip event will allow front-end snow Saturday to change to sleet, then freezing rain Saturday evening in Central and Northern areas, and eventually rain overnight High
2/16Cold front/rainA cold front associated with the same system will move through Sunday PM with rain everywhere, then following the front it turns windy Sunday evening and Monday with cold air advectionHigh
2/19-2/20Winter stormA previously listed winter storm signal has been moved into the "actual Winter storm" category as we are confident this storm exists in the Wednesday night and Thursday time frame... but a farther east or southeast track would yield less snow, which is possible, but this system has a high upside for snow if it hits. Moderate
2/25-2/26Winter storm signalA Winter storm signal identified during this time period that could bring accumulating snow to at least parts of the region. A Winter storm signal identifies a favorable period to monitor based on several key factors, but is not a guarantee for snow at any location.Moderately low
February as a wholeTemperatureSlightly below average (-1.0°F to -3.0°F)Moderately high
February as a wholePrecipitationAbove average (+0.5" to +1.5")Moderately high
February as a wholeSnowfallAbove averageModerately high
March as a wholeTemperatureNear to slightly below average (0.0°F to -2.0°F)Moderate
March as a wholePrecipitationSlightly above average (+0.5" to +1.0")Moderate
March as a wholeSnowfallNear averageModerately low

 

Long range outlook table last updated: Friday February 14th, 10:15 AM. Next scheduled update: Friday February 21st.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum.

More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/mpm/ 

Climatology

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered "normal" using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/Lo (°F)Current EPAWA projection
February 15th44°F/27°FBelow average
February 22nd46°F/29°FBelow to well below average
March 1st48°F/30°FSlightly below average
March 8th50°F/32°FSlightly below average
March 15th52°F/34°FNear average
March 22nd55°F/36°FNear to slightly below average
March 29th58°F/38°FNear to slightly below average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook
CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook
CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook
CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook
CPC weeks 3-4 temperature outlook
CPC weeks 3-4 precipitation outlook
CPC next 3 months temperature outlook
CPC next 3 months precipitation outlook

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly for the Contiguous United States. This is used by NOAA/CPC for the purpose of drought monitoring and drought outlooks. This image will automatically update daily.

US drought monitor (NE US)

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Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated: Friday February 14th, 2025 10:15 AM