OVERVIEW:Â The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) has maintained the moderate to severe drought areas over much of our region as of their latest update, and the severe drought category includes parts of Central and interior Southern New Jersey, East Central PA and Southeast PA, Eastern Maryland, and most of Delaware. Also maintained was the extreme drought designation in coastal Southern New Jersey and a small area in Sussex County Delaware. This has been maintained since precipitation was generally near average in December (not enough to offset the extreme deficits of the Autumn months) and was followed by a solidly below average precipitation departure in January. We do expect a significant turnaround in the months ahead however. Expectations for the month of February as a whole was maintained this week for a solidly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure, with a more active pattern of both storm frequency and storm track. The February projection of snowfall was also maintained above average, and this is largely due to an wintry pattern expected, and two different winter storm threats in the week ahead. March projections were maintained this week for another slightly above average precipitation (+0.5" to +1.0") departure for the month as a whole and for now, the snowfall projection is near average.
Shorter term, we have another overrunning event that is expected to move in Saturday afternoon, and will feature various precipitation types, but there looks to be more in the way of snow for northeastern areas at least at the onset. This system is moving ahead of a warm front that is tied to a strong parent low in the Tennessee Valley. High pressure over far southeastern Canada will create a cold air damming (cold air supply) set-up initially which allows the wintry precipitation at the onset. As that high retreats and the low moves west of our region Saturday night and Sunday, warm air advection will allow wintry precipitation to turn to rain. A cold front associated with the same system follows Sunday afternoon with rain, then turning quite windy behind it Sunday evening through Monday with cold air advection. A previously listed Winter storm signal last week has been moved into the "actual Winter storm" category this week which has high upside to produce a heavy snow event with a coastal low. If the storm is too progressive and too far E/SE, snow amounts will be less. This is still not a guarantee for a major hit, but we'll monitor it closely over the next several days. Another Winter storm signal was placed in the February 25th-26th time frame, which outlines a favorable period for accumulating snow to occur, but is not a guarantee for snow at any given location.
The projection for the month of February is for an above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. Ensemble guidance maintains the idea of a wetter (overall) stretch over the next two weeks, and with precipitation departures over the past several months running below average, any precipitation in any form will be welcomed. Snowfall we listed as above average for February in this week's update. The month of March projection was also maintained this week for another slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.0") precipitation departure for the month as a whole, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends. We continue to project near average snowfall for March.
Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
February 15th - February 21st: Above average
February 22nd - February 28th: Near to slightly below average
March 1st - March 7th: Near to slightly above average
March 8th - March 14th: Slightly above average
March 15th - March 21st: Slightly above average
March 22nd - March 28th: Near to slightly above average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:Â Â http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
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