EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Friday June 13th, 2025, 10:45 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) has been steadily improving over the past month or so, and for the first time since last September of 2024, there are currently NO drought areas noted within our Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Delaware locales. One moderate drought area remains over Baltimore and Harford Counties in Maryland, otherwise much of Maryland has also improved significantly. This is largely due to quite an impressive month of May with a top 5 rainfall month all-time in some locations. An area previously listed as abnormally dry has been removed this week, as the water table and aquifer as soil moisture anomalies [there] are now near normal. We slightly adjusted projections for June this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. While we don't see a repeat this month to the likes we saw in May, precipitation should be as expected typically in June. The month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0" to +1.0") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. 

Shorter term, a frontal boundary will stall over the region this weekend and early next week and will become the focus of periods of showers as areas of low pressure traverse the boundary at times Friday night through Monday. While it won't be raining that entire time, the period will be otherwise cloudy, dreary, and cooler than average regardless. As we approach midweek, ridging will build into the region allowing temperatures to significantly increase, but the threat of diurnally-driven thunderstorms will increase midweek as a pre-frontal trough approaches, followed by a cold front and more organized thunderstorms Thursday ahead of the frontal boundary.

June projections were slightly adjusted this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole, with the expectation of a wetter than average week ahead, then near to slightly below average precipitation for the remainder of June. The month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0" to +1.0") precipitation departure, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends. 

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

June 14th - June 20th: Slightly above average

June 21st - June 27th: Near to slightly below average

June 28th - July 4th: Near average

July 5th - July 11th: Near to slightly below average

July 12th - July 18th: Near to slightly above average

July 19th - July 25th: Slightly above average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  The month of June projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole. This is largely as result of milder overnight temperatures more so than daytime high extremes. Through June 12th, most of our major climate sites across the region have yet to reach the 90°F threshold, with the exception being areas nearest the I-95 corridor. It is quite possible to see NO 90°F temperatures for the remainder of June at some interior locations, and less than usual in the typically hotter areas across our coverage region. The month of July projections were also maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends. 

• The 30-day pattern from late June through late July will be largely seasonable/temperate and absent of many extremes in large part due to a strong ridge aloft setting up in the SW US and anchoring there for an extended period with little budge. This will promote the strongest heating across the country to be found in the Western US and west of the Mississippi River Valley for much of the 6/27-7/28 period. The resulting downstream effect on our area locally will be a northwesterly jet stream flow aloft that moves over and around the Western US ridging, and a more temperate (or near average) temperature regime will be the likely outcome. This type of pattern generally features fast-moving cold fronts and increased frequency of thunderstorm activity, but also limits the opportunity for temperature extremes both hotter and cooler except in transient and synoptically-driven cases.  
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase after spending the past week in the Western Pacific phases of 6/7, and is largely expected to remain in the COD through at least mid-July. This progression allows for warmer than average temperatures during portions of weeks 3 and 4 of June, then after that point since tropical forcing is rather weak it should favor more seasonable temperatures through mid-July, and less in the way of abrupt cooler...or warmer extremes. This combined with the aforementioned ridging setting up for an extended period in the SW US will lead to a prolonged period of a stagnant NW flow aloft locally and a temperate pattern overall.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in ENSO neutral territory as it has been for the past 2 months. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific near Peru) is the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.4°C, but all other regions (Niño 3, 3.4, and 4) are within a tenth of a degree of 0.0°C and solidly in ENSO neutral territory. The expectation is for ENSO neutral to remain throughout the Summer months, which typically favors near to slightly above average temps in the June/July/August 3-month period. Near to leaning slightly above average precipitation is typical of June and July, with a historically wetter than average month of August during ENSO neutral Summers within the past decade. 

Average high temperatures are currently in the 79-83 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Average high and low temperature increases will continue at about a 2.0°F gain per week throughout the entirety of June, and then peaks and reaches annual climatological maximums by mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly above to above average temperatures listed for the June 18th-19th period generally features highs in the upper 80s to near 90, coming at a time when average highs are typically in the lower 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference and transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through August 1st.

The month of June projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, and July projections were also maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends. 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Long Range Outlook Table

Climatology

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

US drought monitor (NE US)