EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Thursday July 3rd, 2025, 10:50 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) maintains NO drought areas within our Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Delaware locales. One moderate drought area remains over Baltimore and Harford Counties in Maryland, otherwise much of Maryland has also improved significantly. This is largely due to quite an impressive month of May with a top 5 rainfall month all-time in some locations, and generally near average precipitation following in June. Going forward, the month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0" to +1.0") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. August monthly projections were introduced this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation projection in accordance with longer term climate models and notoriously wetter Augusts historically within the past decade within a ENSO neutral Summer background state. 

Shorter term, a cold front in association with an upper-level trough will move through Thursday afternoon and evening with a semi-congealed line of thunderstorms, then clears overnight setting up a dry holiday weekend. The next stronger cold front is due to arrive Tuesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying the boundary. A third cold front arrives late next week with additional scattered showers and storms possible. The overall pattern going forward through mid-August features more of a NW flow aloft, which will increase chances of cold fronts and storm chances every 2-3 days. 

The month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0" to +1.0") precipitation departure, with the expectation that overall precipitation events and frequency will increase from week 2 of July onward. The month of August projections for the month as a whole were introduced this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

July 5th - July 11th: Near average

July 12th - July 18th: Slightly above average

July 19th - July 25th: Near to slightly above average

July 26th - August 1st: Near to slightly above average

August 2nd - August 8th: Slightly above average

August 9th - August 15th: Slightly above average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  The month of July projections were slightly adjusted this week for a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with more recent ensemble and climate guidance suggestive of a warmer than average stretch of temperatures beginning mid-July. August projections for the month as a whole were introduced this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends.

• The overall pattern through at least mid-July will generally favor near to slightly warmer than average conditions for most of that stretch, and there continues to be indications that an overall wetter pattern will develop during week 2 of July... setting in just before mid-month. This is likely to have an effect on temperatures, and limits the extended heatwave chances except on a shorter-term and transient basis. The slightly above average projections are more about the warmer overnight lows than it will be about high temperature extremes during the day, but there will most certainly be some 90° days mixed in during that approximately 2 week stretch of weeks 3 and 4 of the month. During the 2nd week of July, the expectation is for this upper-air ridging to retreat farther SW to the 4 corners region (UT/CO/AZ/NM) which will place our area in a NW flow aloft... which increases precipitation chances and frequency. This general pattern configuration is expected to maintain through mid-August according to longer-range climate guidance.   
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase, and is largely expected to remain in the COD through at least early August. Since tropical forcing is weak, it becomes a non-factor in driving the pattern. Other forces like ridge placement will be key to our temperature patterns, and the aforementioned ridging retreating to the SW US during week 2 of July may lead to a stagnant NW flow aloft locally, but near to at times slightly above average temperatures overall. Once this ridge in the SW US gets more established, it will lead to more temperate conditions (near average) heading into early August.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in ENSO neutral territory as it has been for the past 2 months. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific near Peru) is currently the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.4°C, whereas the other regions (Niño 3.4 and Niño 4) are near +0.2°C, and  Niño 3 is currently 0.0°C, placing the entire Pacific basin solidly in ENSO neutral territory. The expectation is for ENSO neutral to remain throughout the Summer months, which typically favors near to slightly above average temps in the June/July/August 3-month period. Near to leaning slightly above average precipitation is typical of June and July, with a historically wetter than average month of August during ENSO neutral Summers within the past decade. 

Average high temperatures are currently in the 84-87 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 1°F higher than at this point last week. Average high and low temperatures will slightly increase incrementally over the next week or so, and then peaks and reaches annual climatological maximums by mid-July. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly above average temperatures listed for the July 15th-28th period generally features highs on either side of 90 degrees, coming at a time when average highs are typically in the mid-upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference and transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through August 15th.

The month of July projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with the expectation of a slightly above average stretch weeks 3 and 4 of the month most notably. The month of August as a whole was introduced this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection, using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends. 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Long Range Outlook Table

Climatology

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

US drought monitor (NE US)