EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Friday July 25th, 2025, 10:00 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) maintains NO drought areas within our Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Delaware locales. One abnormally dry area remains over Southern Baltimore County in Maryland, otherwise the remainder of Maryland has no drought designation. This is largely due to quite an impressive month of May with a top 5 rainfall month all-time in some locations, and generally near average precipitation following in June, and near average precipitation thus far in July. Going forward, the month of July as a whole projections were slightly adjusted this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. August monthly projections were maintained this week for a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation projection in accordance with longer term climate models and global observation trends.

Shorter term, a cold front will move through the region Friday, then stalls to the SW of the region on Saturday. It returns northeastward as a warm front Saturday night and Sunday, leading to scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms from later Saturday night through Sunday morning. Until the system fully clears, scattered thunderstorms will still be possible Sunday afternoon. It returns to hot and humid conditions in the early to middle part of next week, then a cold front arrives Wednesday or Wednesday night effectively ending the heat/humidity and a week or longer of slightly below average temperatures and more comfortable humidity will follow. Scattered showers/storms will be possible with that front Wednesday, then a mostly dry week will follow accompanying the aforementioned cooler airmass. Next cold front is due to arrive near August 6th. 

The month of July projections were slightly lowered this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure, with the expectation that overall precipitation events and frequency will be limited over the last week of this month. The month of August projections for the month as a whole were maintained this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

July 26th - August 1st: Near to slightly above average

August 2nd - August 8th: Near to slightly below average

August 9th - August 15th: Near to slightly above average

August 16th - August 22nd: Near to slightly above average

August 23rd - August 29th: Near to slightly below average

August 30th - September 5th: Near to slightly below average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  The month of July projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with several above average temperature days expected within the final week of the month. August projections for the month as a whole were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends, and the expectation of a cooler start to the month balanced by overall warmer than average conditions after the first 10 days of August.

• The overall pattern through for the remainder of July features generally above average temperatures with the exception of Sunday 7/27 when clouds and precipitation will limit temperatures somewhat, and the final day of the month in the wake of a cold front. The best ridging in the US will shift westward to the four corners region (UT/CO/AZ/NM) toward the end of the month, allowing for a NW flow aloft to develop locally. This will bring cooler than average conditions to begin August for the first 7-10 days until that ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. This is in response to Western Pacific tropical forcing this week which typically favors this type of set-up.  
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 6 in the Western Pacific, and is largely expected to quickly move into phase 7 before collapsing into the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase by the middle of next week. This typically promotes the Western US ridging and NW flow aloft locally that we expect to begin Augusts, which leads to slightly below average temperatures in the current ENSO neutral background state. Once tropical forcing reaches the COD, about a week to 10 days later we're likely to see a more zonal flow develop, leading to more typical summerlike conditions returning.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in ENSO neutral territory as it has been for the past several months. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific near Peru) is currently the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.1°C, whereas the other regions (Niño 3 and Niño 4) are near -0.1°C, and  Niño 3.4 is currently -0.2°C, placing the entire Pacific basin solidly in ENSO neutral territory. The expectation is for ENSO neutral to remain throughout the Summer months, which typically favors near to slightly above average temps in the June/July/August 3-month period, and near to slightly above average precipitation is typical of July and August. 

Average high temperatures are currently in the 85-88 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is still within the peak annual climatological maximums period, and the highest average temperatures of the year. These maximums will slowly abate over the coming weeks heading into August. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly below average temperatures listed for the July 31st-August 6th period generally features highs in the lower 80s, coming at a time when average highs are typically in the mid-upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference and transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through September 15th

The month of July projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with the expectation of an overall above average final week of July sans two of those days. The month of August as a whole was maintained this week for another near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection, using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends. 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Long Range Outlook Table

Climatology

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

US drought monitor (NE US)