EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Thursday July 11th, 2025, 10:50 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) maintains NO drought areas within our Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Delaware locales. One moderate drought area remains over Baltimore and Harford Counties in Maryland, otherwise much of Maryland has also improved significantly. This is largely due to quite an impressive month of May with a top 5 rainfall month all-time in some locations, and generally near average precipitation following in June. Going forward, the month of July projections were maintained this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. August monthly projections were also maintained this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation projection in accordance with longer term climate models and a continuation of an ENSO neutral Summer background state. 

Shorter term, a cold front will approach Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms for mainly interior locales, but activity will be running ahead of the front which will move through on Monday. More numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday as that front finally moves through, and weighted toward the eastern half of our region. A similar situation will unfold at the end of next week with another cold front moving through the region. The front approaches Thursday with perhaps interior scattered showers and thunderstorms, then moves through the rest of the region next Friday. This time of year the steering flow is rather weak, so less in the way of shear and slower-moving storm motions ahead of the boundary will be more common. When combined with higher dewpoints and precipitable water content in the atmosphere, this can lead to a heavy rain threat in any thunderstorm activity. 

The month of July projections were maintained this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure, with the expectation that overall precipitation events and frequency will remain active going forward. The month of August projections for the month as a whole were also maintained this week for a slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation departure, using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

July 12th - July 18th: Slightly above average

July 19th - July 25th: Near average

July 26th - August 1st: Near to slightly above average

August 2nd - August 8th: Near to slightly above average

August 9th - August 15th: Near to slightly above average

August 16th - August 22nd: Near average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  The month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with higher dewpoints keeping overnight lows higher despite the absence of long stretches of extreme high temperatures. August projections for the month as a whole were also maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends, and the expectation of much of the same type of pattern through at least mid-August.

• The overall pattern through for the remainder of July features temperatures that will be very typical summerlike... absent of long periods of extremes and warmer/muggy overnight lows. Combined with the slightly higher than average precipitation, it limits the extended heatwave chances except on a shorter-term and transient basis. The near to slightly above average projection is more about the warmer overnight lows than it will be about high temperature extremes during the day, but there will most certainly be some 90° days mixed in over the remainder of this month. During the last 10 days or so of July, the expectation is for this upper-air ridging to retreat farther SW to the 4 corners region (UT/CO/AZ/NM) which will place our area in a NW flow aloft... which maintains higher precipitation chances and frequency. This general pattern configuration is expected to maintain through mid-August according to longer-range climate guidance.   
  
  
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently near the Circle of Death (COD) or NULL phase and bordering a weaker phase 4 state, and is largely expected to quickly move through phase 5 within the next week, then through the Western Pacific phases of 6 and 7 over the last 10 days or so of July and first half of August. This typically promotes temperate conditions (typical summertime weather for July and August) in the current ENSO neutral background state, and also promotes the aforementioned best ridging to retreat to the SW US during the final 10 days of July. This will likely result in a stagnant NW flow aloft at that time, which aids in frequency of precipitation and thunderstorm events.
  
  
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in ENSO neutral territory as it has been for the past 2 months. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific near Peru) is currently the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +0.4°C, whereas the other regions (Niño 3 and Niño 4) are near +0.2°C, and  Niño 3.4 is currently +0.1°C, placing the entire Pacific basin solidly in ENSO neutral territory. The expectation is for ENSO neutral to remain throughout the Summer months, which typically favors near to slightly above average temps in the June/July/August 3-month period. Slightly above average precipitation is typical of July and August, with a historically wetter than average month of August during ENSO neutral Summers within the past decade. 

Average high temperatures are currently in the 85-88 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 1°F higher than at this point last week. This is now the start of the peak annual climatological maximums period, and the highest average temperatures of the year which will maintain for several weeks. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the near to slightly above average temperatures listed for the July 15th-18th period generally features highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, coming at a time when average highs are typically in the mid-upper 80s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference and transparency for what average temperatures are at each corresponding location through September 1st.

The month of July projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature departure for the month as a whole, with the expectation of warmer overnight lows contributing more to the overall temperature departures more so than the daytime high extremes. The month of August as a whole was maintained this week for another near to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +2.0°F) temperature projection, using long term climate guidance and seasonal/global observation trends. 

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Long Range Outlook Table

Climatology

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

US drought monitor (NE US)