Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: After back-to-back very wet months relative to average in both December and January, the month of February finished on the slightly drier side of average, however it does appear evident that March will turn wetter once again. The month of March using longer range ensembles and global trends suggests a slightly above to above average precipitation (+0.5" to +1.5") departure for the month as a whole, but given the milder temperatures expected for at least in the first three weeks of the month, snowfall expectations are below average. Temperatures likely turn colder turn late month, but it will be relative to milder average highs at that time, which are solidly in the 50s. Accumulating snow, while certainly not out of the question, is more difficult to achieve at that time, especially for southern and SE areas. Our opening bid for the month of April is for a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure, with below average (or none) snowfall.

Shorter term, a system will move from the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys Friday to the Delmarva on Saturday. Showers begin later Friday night, then periods of rain are expected most of the daylight hours on Saturday, wrapping up late afternoon with moderate rain amounts. A somewhat similarly tracked system follows a few days later in the late Wednesday or Wednesday night and Thursday time frame, and may be a bit more amped than the previous [Saturday] system. This too will be in the form of rain as temperatures will be unsupportive of wintry precipitation at this time. The 3rd system listed in this week’s long range chart is for the March 9th-10th period, and has been there has been speculation this week that this may turn wintry, but we just don’t see it. It is a Miller B type system involving a transfer of energy from a primary low cutting into the Great Lakes to a secondary near the Delmarva. But with antecedent milder temperatures in place prior to the system’s arrival and no cold air source in this case, this is likely to be in the form of rain once again. Ensembles overwhelmingly agree that temperatures will be [at best] near average, which isn’t going to cut it for snow for most areas. We’ll monitor of course, but this time of year snow lovers are often looking for something…anything to hold on to, doing their best Kate Winslet in the freezing cold waters reluctant to let go of Leonardo DiCaprio after the Titanic already sunk impression. Sometimes it’s just time to move on.

Our projection for the month of March as a whole was maintained this week for slightly above to above average (+0.5" to +1.5") precipitation (or liquid equivalent) along with below average snowfall. After a slightly drier than average February, we return to the wetter look that was common in January. The month of April as a whole was introduced this week for a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure, and we expect below average snowfall or none at all – which typically isn’t much to begin with in April.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

March 2nd – March 8th: Slightly above average

March 9th – March 15th: Above average

March 16th – March 22nd: Slightly above average

March 23rd – March 29th: Slightly above average

March 30th – April 5th: Near to slightly above average

April 6th – April 12th: Near average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note: Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

A low moving from the MS/TN valleys Friday to the Delmarva Saturday will bring moderate rain to the region, beginning Friday night and continuing the majority of the daylight hours on Saturday.

Additional chances for rain follow over the next 10 days, with a system that takes a similar track as Saturday’s low midweek next week, then a Miller B style system brings more rain March 9th-10th.

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW: We continue to expect an overall milder than average look through at least the equinox, sans a near average period between March 10th-12th. This is a result of a Pacific-driven pattern, unabated in driving milder air into much of the country except for the Rockies and Western US during this period. After the equinox, temperatures will be cooler relative to average due to stratospheric changes and blocking (see below) which will likely carry into the first half of April. The month of March was adjusted slightly this week to above average (+2.0°F to +4.0°F) with the overall milder temperatures expected through at least the equinox. March is likely to turn cooler relative to average past the equinox on March 19th. The month of April was introduced this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure for the month as whole, using longer term ensembles and global observation trends. The thinking is that although April starts off cooler than average in the first half of the month, it balances with a milder turn for the 2nd half.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 5 in the Maritime Continent this morning. Tropical forcing moving through the Maritime Continent is a milder phase, and from there it is expected to move through phases 6 and 7 in the Western Pacific through the end of this month. The Pacific pattern is rather hostile and inhospitable to snow lovers, as the collapse of the blocking over Greenland and no help from the MJO will lead to an unabated Pacific-dominated pattern that sees warmer anomalies maintain for a few weeks overall through near the equinox on March 19th. It is unlikely that much if any snow occurs during this time frame, and the pattern will be similar to what was seen in the late January and early February period. Stratospheric changes with sudden warming over the polar regions and a complete zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa early next week will likely result in the return of a blocking pattern over Greenland, and this time it will be sustainable. This will result in cooler temperatures moving in late month and the first two weeks of April. It should be noted that normal highs at that time are solidly in the 50s in late March, and even lower 60s heading toward mid-April, and slightly below average temperatures will be relative to those "normal" temperatures at that time. Timing will be more critical to any snow that may occur at that time, will favor interior locations, and will have to occur overnight when it is colder. Not impossible, but the prospects for additional snow are admittedly not that great, especially for areas near and SE of the I-95 corridor. We talk about thread-the-needle a lot, but this will be thread-the-needle to the Nth degree.

Average high temperatures are currently in the 43-48°F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 1-2 degrees higher than at this time last week. Temperatures will continue to climb at about the same pace through March, and becomes a 3° increase per week in April and beyond. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly below average temperatures listed between March 25th-31st generally features highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region, coming at a time when average highs are in the lower to upper 50s across the region from NW to SE. Use the average highs/lows chart below that provides a point of reference for what average is for each corresponding date, with the examples used for the Philadelphia region, which is one of our warmest climate sites.

Our projection for the month of March was slightly adjusted this week to an above average (+2.0°F to +4.0°F) temperature departure, which is largely due to the Pacific-dominated pattern and milder temps (overall) through about the equinox on March 19th. Cooler temperatures return relative to average late month, but likely not enough to offset the anomalously warmer dominated first 3 weeks of the month. The month of April was introduced this week for a near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) temperature departure expectation, using longer term climate guidance and global observation trends. A cooler start to the month most likely, with some temperature recovery during the 2nd half of April is the current expectation.

Note: Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

A mild-dominated first nearly three weeks of March up through about the equinox is replaced by cooler than average temperature anomalies from late March through the first 10-14 days of April.

Average snowfall for each month at our major climate sites within are region for March and April are below. Average snowfall is cut in half from February to March, and then April is more negligible.

Long Range Outlook Table

Date(s)	Threats	Significance	Confidence
3/2	Temperature	Near to slightly above average	Very high
3/3-3/6	Temperature	Above average	Very high
3/7-3/9	Temperature	Slightly above average	High
3/10-3/12	Temperature	Near average	Moderately high
3/13-3-19	Temperature	Slightly above average	Moderately high
3/20-3/21	Temperature	Near average	Moderate
3/22-3/24	Temperature	Near to slightly below average	Moderate
3/25-3/31	Temperature	Slightly below average	Moderately low
4/1-4/7	Temperature	Slightly below average	Low
4/8-4/14	Temperature	Near to slightly below average	Very low
3/3	Rain	Low pressure moves from the MS/TN valley region Friday to the Delmarva on Saturday. Periods of rain are likely through late afternoon Saturday with moderate rain amounts.	High
3/6-3/7	Rain	A similar system as its predecessor, perhaps a bit more amped affects the region in the late Wednesday or Wednesday night time frame with periods of rain likely.	Moderately high
3/9-3/10	Rain	A Miller B style system affects the region in this time frame, but this unlike some speculation to the contrary, it will likely be rain, not snow as temps will likely be too warm.	Moderate
March as a whole	Temperature	Above average (+2.0°F to +4.0°F)	Moderately high
March as a whole	Precipitation	Slightly above to above average (+0.5" to +1.5")	Moderately high
March as a whole	Snowfall	Below average	Moderately high
April as a whole	Temperature	Near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F)	Moderate
April as a whole	Precipitation	Near average (-0.5" to +0.5")	Moderate
April as a whole	Snowfall	Below average or none	Moderate

Outlook table last updated: Friday March 1st, 10:10 AM. Next scheduled update: Friday March 8th.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/mpm/

Climatology

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered "normal" using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

Date	Average Hi/Lo (°F)	Current EPAWA projection
March 2nd	48°F/31°F	Near to slightly above average
March 9th	50°F/32°F	Slightly above average
March 16th	53°F/34°F	Slightly above average
March 23rd	55°F/36°F	Near to slightly below average
March 30th	58°F/39°F	Slightly below average
April 6th	61°F/41°F	Slightly below average
April 13th	64°F/43°F	Near to slightly below average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook

CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook

CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook

CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook

CPC weeks 3-4 temperature outlook

CPC weeks 3-4 precipitation outlook

CPC next 3 months temperature outlook

CPC next 3 months precipitation outlook

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly for the Contiguous United States. This is used by NOAA/CPC for the purpose of drought monitoring and drought outlooks. This image will automatically update daily.