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Warmer through the end of the week,
then a cooler trough arrives Saturday
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Long Range Outlook

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This week's long range table

ThreatsSignificanceConfidence
5/23TemperatureNear averageVery high
5/24TemperatureSlightly below averageVery high
5/25TemperatureNear averageVery high
5/26-5/30TemperatureAbove averageHigh
5/31-6/3TemperatureNear to slightly below averageModerately high
6/4-6/6TemperatureNear averageModerately high
6/7-6/14TemperatureSlightly above averageModerate
6/15-6/21TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerate
6/22-6/28TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerately low
6/29-7/5TemperatureSlightly above averageLow
5/23Upper level lowAn upper level low and its associated surface low will begin to exit to the east and offshore Saturday, but a parting shot of very widely scattered showers (hit or miss) with thunderstorm(s) possible during the afternoon and evening for some, but not all areas.High
5/30Cold frontNext chance for rain comes with a cold front, expected late Saturday or Saturday evening of next week. Scattered showers/t-storms are possible along and ahead of the boundary.Moderate
May as a wholeTemperatureNear average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F)Very high
May as a wholePrecipitationSlightly below average (-0.5" to -1.5")Very high
June as a wholeTemperatureSlightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F)Moderately high
June as a wholePrecipitationNear to slightly above average (+0.0" to +0.5")Moderate

Outlook table last updated: Friday May 22nd, 10:30AM. Next scheduled update: Friday May 29th.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ 

Climatology

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/LoEPAWA projection
May 23rd76°F/56°FNear average
May 30th78°F/59°FAbove average
June 6th80°F/61°FNear average
June 13th82°F/63°FSlightly above average
June 20th84°F/65°FNear to slightly above average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Long range analysis: Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.

Precipitation Discussion:

Precipitation:

An upper level low remained well to the west and southwest of the region this week, which enabled this region to miss out on the heavier rains that were expected to be over our region for much of this week. At this time last week, models suggested several inches of rain and a rather wet week, but alas only a few widely scattered showers will materialize Friday and Saturday as the upper level low and its associated surface low pulls NE and offshore. As such, the already slightly below average rainfall for the month has continued, and the margin of monthly rainfall deficits have broadened. Adjustments were made to the monthly projection to finish below average by month’s end as a result of this significant shift.

The first precipitation chance within the outlook is in the near term, as the aforementioned upper level low and its associated surface low finally pulls northeast in a much more weakened state. Scattered showers Friday will move through from south to north across the region, with a shower or two possible in spots overnight. As the upper level low moves offshore Saturday, a few very widely scattered (hit or miss) showers and perhaps thunderstorms move through parts of the region mainly during the afternoon hours – ending by early evening.

The next chance for precipitation holds off until the following weekend, a strong upper air ridge builds into the region during the week. This will lead to anomalously warmer than average temperatures just as the Memorial Day holiday weekend comes to a close, and will promote another week of dry weather under the influence of a 590dm ridge. Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary will be possible later Saturday and Saturday night as the cold front approaches.

The precipitation departure from average for the month of May we project will finish slightly below average (-0.5″ to -1.5″) with very high confidence, with not much in the way of “events” to come by for the remainder of May. Looking at the month of June using a blend of ensembles, climate models, and seasonal trends suggests a near to slightly above average (+0.0″ to +0.5″) precipitation departure for the month as a whole.

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Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

May 25th-May 31st:  Slightly below average

June 1st-June 7th:  Near average

June 8th-June 14th:  Near to slightly below average

June 15th-June 21st:  Near to slightly above average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

An upper level low and its associated surface low moves offshore Saturday, but keeps the shower/t-storm threat in the forecast for some areas on mainly Saturday afternoon/evening, but not a washout anywhere.

nam

After a mostly dry and anomalously warm week under a 590dm ridge influence, a cold front arrives with the next chance for precipitation next Saturday and Saturday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

ecm2

Pattern Discussion:

Pattern:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently in phase 4 temporarily through this weekend, before moving quickly into phases 5 and 6 in the week ahead. During the late Spring and Summer months, phases 5/6 are generally warmer phases, and supports next week’s expected anomalous ridging and warmth. Heading into the first week of June, the MJO propagation into phases 7 and 8, both cooler phases, is expected. This coincides with the near to slightly below average temperatures period expected during the first full week of the month.

In the shorter term, the upper level low that became a cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley for much of this past week is finally weakening and moving northeast toward our region. With the expected unsettled conditions at times to start the holiday weekend, and in the wake of that system on Sunday, much of the Memorial Day holiday weekend (through Monday) remains generally near to slightly above average in the interior, with cooler anomalies found closer to the shore points and eastern/southeastern areas, especially on Sunday and Monday. In the midterm, a strong upper air ridge [projected ~590dm] will build in beginning on Tuesday, and lasts through Saturday of next week. During this time, temperatures will reach the 80s Tuesday, and will become progressively warmer than that throughout the week, culminating with mid to upper 80s for highs by Friday and Saturday. Longer term, and post-frontal passage on Saturday evening/overnight, temperatures will drop to near to slightly below average leading into the first full week of June as troughing is expected to follow the front and lingers for several days.

Although we don’t do seasonal forecasting for the much longer term, early indications are that in the July-September period, probabilities favor warmer/hotter than average conditions rather than cooler.

Breaking down the remainder of the month of May, the slightly cooler than average temperatures for the month thus far found currently for most locations will be replaced with anomalous warmth next week, which renders the month as a whole near average (-1.0°F to +1.0°F) when the dust settles May 31st with very high confidence. Looking at the month of June as a whole, we maintain projections this week of slightly above average (+1.0° to +3.0°F) temperatures, using longer range climate ensembles and global observation trends.

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

In the short term, we’ll see temperatures near to slightly above average through much of the holiday weekend, but cooler temps will be found closer to the shore points with an onshore flow, especially Sunday and Monday.

eps

A strong ridge that peaks late week as high as 590dm will move in beginning this Tuesday, and lasts through Saturday of next week until the next trough and cold front arrives. Temps well into the 80s will be common.

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Next 3 weeks of US temperature departures

Images below are clickable for better viewing

Days 1-5 – confidence VERY HIGH

1-5

Days 6-10 – confidence HIGH

6-10

Days 11-15 – confidence MODERATELY HIGH

11-15

Days 16-20 – confidence MODERATE

16-20

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly for the Contiguous United States. This is used by NOAA/CPC for the purpose of drought monitoring and drought outlooks.

This image will automatically update daily.

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Spring and Summer text alerts and premium forum options are now available for advance purchase. A nominal one-time fee will bring you detailed alerts throughout the Spring and Summer between April 1st, 2020 and September 30th, 2020, and includes real-time thunderstorm alerts. Visit http://epawaweather.com/spring-summer-alerts/ for full details, or simply click on the banner below.

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Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated: Friday May 22nd, 10:30AM