Precipitation:
OVERVIEW: Relatively dry conditions for most of the region through the first half of the month to date will likely continue in the week ahead, with just a few minor impulses in the vicinity Sunday-Monday, followed by two separate cold fronts midweek and next weekend. At present time compared to seasonal norms, even with a possible uptick in precipitation to end April (final week) it doesn’t look like it will be enough to overcome the below average precipitation departures currently running 0.5-1.0″ below average observed across the region through April 16th. May continues to look a bit wetter at least during the first half of the month, with a closer to average outlook for the 2nd half of May.
The first chance for precipitation in this outlook is not very noteworthy, as back to back weak impulses move through the region on Sunday and Monday. A stray shower cannot be ruled out on either occasion, however recent modeling trends have been to limit this chance to just Monday. A better chance for scattered showers presents itself on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region, but precipitation does not look to be a lot with a quarter inch or less for most areas. Another reinforcing cold front is due to arrive next weekend, with the GFS suggesting Saturday, and the European guidance pushing that chance off until Sunday. Scattered showers will again be possible along and ahead of the boundary.
The month of April we project will finish with slightly below average (-0.5″ to -1.0″) precipitation departures for the month as a whole with moderately high confidence. Snowfall is unlikely from this point forward, and we are likely past the point that accumulating snowfall will occur. Our opening bid for the month of May we project slightly above average precipitation (+0.5″ to +1.0″) anomaly for the month as a whole, using long range climate guidance and global observational trends. Best chance for above average precipitation favors the first half of the month.
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Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
April 17th – April 23rd: Slightly below average
April 24th – April 30th: Near to slightly above average
May 1st – May 7th: Near to slightly above average
May 8th – May 14th: Slightly above average
May 15th – May 21st: Near average
May 22nd – May 28th: Near average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing