Precipitation:
OVERVIEW: What seems like an endless bad dream for those that have grown tired of the snow this month (this forecaster included) and a moment of rejoicing for snow lovers will continue to pose threats for snow through the end of February, at least for a portion of each threat. Most areas are well above average snowfall for February, and most locations away from the far SE areas are above average Winter snowfall marks. Quantitative precipitation, or liquid equivalent this month is also considerably above average. Three separate systems remain a threat in different ways for the remainder of this month, then a near to slightly above average March is expected to follow.
The first chance for precipitation listed in this outlook is not a large system and is relatively quick moving. Snow looks to overspread the region on Monday morning from W-E, and this presently looks like an interior Pennsylvania deal. North of I-78 may remain snow throughout the day on Monday where it remains colder, while areas nearest I-78 corridor will likely mix with rain in the afternoon. South of I-78, a complete changeover is anticipated to rain after beginning as snow, then the system exits early Monday evening. We will monitor evolution closely over the weekend.
The next two systems are storm signals, and will also be monitored closely in the week ahead. First chance at the end of next week could provide a wintry solution and more snow across the region if the timing is right to link up two separate northern and southern stream energy pieces at the right point to deliver an accumulating snowfall. Given how the month has gone with these signals, I wouldn’t bet against it, but carried moderate confidence for now. A second signal was also listed at the tail end of this month and to begin March, but at present time appears to be perhaps a wintry start if timing/track is right, then changing to rain everywhere as temperatures sufficiently warm.
The month of February we project will finish with above average (+1.0″ to +2.0″) precipitation departures for the month as a whole with very high confidence. Snowfall thanks to the historic storm to begin the month and several subsequent events will be well above average, and we may add to those totals in the next week or so. Looking ahead to the month of March suggests a near to slightly above average precipitation (+0.0″ to +0.5″) anomaly for the month as a whole, with near to slightly below average snowfall favoring earlier in the month using long range climate guidance and global observational trends.
Follow our social media channels for updates:
EPAWA Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/epawawx/
Meteorologist Bobby Martrich [EPAWA] on Twitter: https://twitter.com/epawawx
YouTube channel/daily forecast video: https://www.youtube.com/user/eastpaweather
Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
February 21st – February 27th: Near to slightly below average
February 28th – March 6th: Slightly above average
March 7th – March 13th: Near average
March 14th – March 20th: Near to slightly above average
March 21st – March 27th: Near to slightly above average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing