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Monday’s solar eclipse viewability
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Long Range Outlooks

DatesThreatsSignificanceConfidence
8/19-8/23TemperatureSlightly above to above averageVery high
8/24-8/28TemperatureSlightly below averageHigh
8/29-9/3TemperatureNear averageModerately high
9/4-9/10TemperatureSlightly above averageModerate
9/11-9/17TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerately low
8/21Partial solar eclipseViewability for the solar eclipse Monday afternoon continues to look good across the region, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and no weather issues anticipated.Very high
8/23Cold frontA cold front will push through the region on Wednesday, preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a trough settles in behind this front for several days.High
August as a wholeTemperatureSlightly above average (+0.5°F to +1.5°F)Moderately high
August as a wholePrecipitationAbove average (+1.0" to +2.5")High
September as a wholeTemperatureSlightly above average (+0.5°F to +1.5°F)Moderate
September as a wholePrecipitationSlightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5")Moderate

Outlook table last updated: Friday August 18th, 11:20am.  Next update: Friday August 25th.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ 

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/LoEPAWA projection
August 19th85°F/68°FSlightly above to above average
August 26th84°F/67°FSlightly below average
September 2nd83°F/65°FNear average
September 9th81°F/63°FSlightly above average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Long range analysis: Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major rain or severe events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear our updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.

Precipitation Discussion:

Precipitation:

Not much to speak of within this 7-10 day period, which will be a welcome change to the overall very wet pattern we’ve experienced over the region since the beginning of June. One area if precipitation is shown Wednesday of this upcoming week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of a cold front. This front comes after several days of anomalous warmth and dry conditions, which will be followed by several days of anomalously cooler temperatures and dry conditions.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

August 19th-August 25th: Below average

August 26th-September 1st: Near to slightly below average

September 2nd-September 8th: Near average

September 9th-September 15th: Near to slightly below average

All public/freely available maps will be updated when the threat is imminent for severe weather on the weather alerts page throughout the Spring and Summer: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The GFS shows a cold front making its way through the region on Wednesday, preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms

gfs4

The partial solar eclipse forecast for Monday afternoon continues to not only look dry, but most models suggest clear to partly cloudy skies

ecm

Pattern Discussion:

Pattern:

The period will start off anomalously warmer than average through about the 23rd, before Wednesday’s cold front sets the stage for several slightly below average days behind it as a trough settles in. Temperatures through the weekend through the middle of next week will average slightly above to at times above average during this period, likely peaking on Tuesday.

The trough following Wednesday’s front was originally projected to be relatively weak and transient, and has since become more impressive due to a -NAO blocking signature showing up. This blocking is in response to the rapid intensification and recurve of Hurricane Gert, which is now post-tropical, but influenced the NAO in such a way to promote the blocking and more impressive cooler signal between the 24th and 28th.

After this period, the below average temperature anomalies shift west into the Plains, and we return to near average toward the end of the month into early September. The Euro weeklies suggest a return to slightly above average week 3, which is the week between September 4th and 10th, most likely in response to an increase in the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) expected at that time. The same Euro weeklies suggest a near to slightly above average week 4, September 11th-17th.

August as a whole we think averages slightly above average (+0.5°F to +1.5°F) when the dust settles August 31st, with moderately high confidence, and the anomalous warmth through about the 23rd should be able to overcome the slightly below average period expected in the several days that follow. The early September outlook suggests a near to slightly above average month to end Summer and begin the Fall.

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows the anomalous warmth over the region this weekend through the middle of next week, peaking on Tuesday.

gefs2

The same GEFS shows the cooler effects of a trough settling into the region between the 24th and 28th behind Wednesday’s cold front.

gefs3

Next 3 weeks of US temperature departures

Images below are clickable for better viewing

Days 1-5:

1-5

Days 6-10:

6-10

Days 11-15:

11-15

Days 16-20:

16-20

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest soil moisture anomaly, which is an integral part of drought outlooks. Reds and oranges represent below normal soil moisture levels, greens represent above normal values.

This image will automatically update daily.

My Pocket Meteorologist

The My Pocket Meteorologist text alert program gearing up for the upcoming severe season. Seasonal options will be available beginning March 31st. Click on the image below for more information.

mpm3

Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated:  Friday August 18th, 11:20am