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Another cold weekend forthcoming,
then turning a bit milder next week
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Long Range Outlook

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Winter-only text alerts and premium forum options for the 2019-2020 Winter are now available for purchase. A nominal one-time fee will bring you detailed alerts throughout the Winter between November 1st, 2019 and March 31st, 2020, or last snowfall. Visit http://epawaweather.com/winter-weather-alerts/ for full details, or simply click on the banner below.

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This week's long range table

DatesThreatsSignificanceConfidence
11/9TemperatureBelow averageVery high
11/10-11/11TemperatureNear to slightly below averageVery high
11/12-11/14TemperatureBelow to well below averageVery high
11/15-11/17TemperatureSlightly below averageHigh
11/18-11/24TemperatureNear to slightly below averageModerately high
11/25-12/1TemperatureNear averageModerately high
12/2-12/8TemperatureNear averageModerate
12/9-12/15TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerately low
11/11-11/12Cold frontA cold front moves through on Monday night/early Tuesday morning and will be accompanied by rain/snow showers mixed Monday night, ending as snow showers Tuesday morning.Moderately high
11/15-11/16Rain/mixLow pressure could be close enough to the coast to bring rain or a wintry mix to the region next weekend, but it is too far a range to speculate on impacts, if any at all. There is a large model spread, and most would suggest low remains SE our area at this time.Moderately low
November as a wholeTemperatureSlightly below average (-2.0°F to -4.0°F)High
November as a wholePrecipitationNear to slightly below average (-0.0" to -1.0")Moderately high
November as a wholeSnowfallSlightly below averageModerately high
December as a wholeTemperaturesNear to slightly above average (+0.0°F to +1.5°F)Moderate
December as a wholePrecipitationSlightly above average (+0.5" to +1.0")Moderate
December as a wholeSnowfallNear averageModerate

Outlook table last updated: Friday November 8th, 11:15am. Next scheduled update: Friday November 15th.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ 

Climatology

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/LoEPAWA projection
November 9th59°F/41°FBelow average
November 16th56°F/39°FSlightly below average
November 23rd53°F/37°FNear to slightly below average
November 30th50°F/35°FNear average
December 7th48°F/33°FNear average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Long range analysis: Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.

Precipitation Discussion:

Precipitation:

We continue to project a near to slightly below average precipitation month for November, with limited chances for rain/snow. Most of the activity for the remainder of the month will be associated with reinforcing cold fronts, and at times, generally weaker northern stream waves to contend with. There is an outside chance that something more impactful is in the works toward the end of the month if blocking (-NAO) can be realized, but it is too early to do anything more than speculate at this point.

First cold front moves through early Tuesday, and in similar areas to this past front on Thursday evening, some areas will have rain showers Monday night mix with and/or change to snow before ending early Tuesday morning. Focus of any light wintry precipitation will be in interior locales, similar to this past Thursday evening.

Toward the end of the week and next weekend (timing indiscernible) there is the possibility of a coastal low affecting mainly the SE US. In the absence of blocking, this system should turn out to see rather harmlessly with only fringe precipitation in our area on the NW side. We will continue to monitor throughout the week for changes, and low chance rain/wintry mix mentions will be maintained at the moment.

The precipitation outlook for the month of November we project to be near to slightly below average (-0.0″ to -1.0″) with moderately high confidence, and overall drier during the first half of this month to coincide with the cooler air present. Early look at the month of December would suggest slightly above average precipitation (+0.5″ to +1.0″) by months end, using a blend of climate models and our privately shared 2019-2020 Winter Outlook projections from this past Wednesday.

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YouTube channel/daily forecast video: https://www.youtube.com/user/eastpaweather

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

November 11th-November 17th:  Near to slightly below average

November 18th-November 24th:  Near average

November 25th-December 1st:  Near to slightly above average

December 2nd-December 8th:  Near to slightly above average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

A cold front will cross the region early Tuesday morning, and like the similar front that crossed this past Thursday night, may bring rain/snow showers that ends as snow showers Tuesday AM to generally the same areas. 

gfs1

While most ensemble guidance would suggest a late week or next weekend coastal low remains largely SE of the region, there could be rain or a wintry mix on the NW side of that low locally if the low comes close enough to us.

gfs2

Pattern Discussion:

Pattern:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently in phase 4, in the Maritime Continent and both GEFS and EPS guidance suggest a longer term eastward propagation of the best tropical forcing through phases 5-8 toward mid-November.

The much bigger driver in our weather in the coming weeks will be the presence of strong ridging in the Western US, and an Aleutian low. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) remains predominantly negative, with a climb to neutral centered around the middle of the month. In this case, the -EPO will continue to allow colder air to dominate the pattern in the US east of the Rockies. The most notable periods to feel these effects will be ongoing (currently) through the start of the weekend, and again in the middle of next week. We remain near to slightly below average through at least the end of the 3rd week of November thereafter, and near average temperatures during the 4th week of November and first week of December. Slightly milder temps may be found in the 2nd week of December, but of course, relative to time of year.

At the time this outlook was written on Friday November 8th, average highs are generally in the mid to upper 50s across the entire region, so any “slightly above/below average” periods will be relative to time of year. Highs in early November when we project slightly below average temperatures will likely be in the 40s, and stuck in the 30s to low 40s region-wide during the below average periods noted.

The month of November we project we’ll see near to slightly below average temperatures (-2.0°F to -4.0°F) by months end with high confidence. The month of December outlook is for near to slightly above average temperatures (+0.0°F to +1.5°F) using a blend of long range ensembles and climate models, and projections from our privately shared 2019-2020 Winter Outlook earlier this week.

Snowfall: There will be opportunities for lake effect snow and perhaps a lighter event during the 2nd half of the month of November, but indiscernible at this range to specific dates. We will revisit in future outlooks, but at present time, slightly below average snowfall is the going expectation for the month. Near average snowfall is the projection for the month of December at this time, with marginal temperature events, but a higher frequency of precipitation compared to November.

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

Very cold temperatures relative to average will be found next Tuesday through Thursday across the region, with temperatures some 15-20°F below average. This cold shot will be short lived, and the trough lifts out late week.

gefs2

Despite the core of the cold trough lifting out, it will only “moderate” a bit, yet temperatures will remain slightly below average through next weekend. Near to slightly below average temps follow for the week afterwards.

gefs3

Next 3 weeks of US temperature departures

Images below are clickable for better viewing

Days 1-5 – confidence VERY HIGH

1-5

Days 6-10 – confidence HIGH

6-10

Days 11-15 – confidence MODERATELY HIGH

11-15

Days 16-20 – confidence MODERATE

16-20

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly for the Contiguous United States. This is used by NOAA/CPC for the purpose of drought monitoring and drought outlooks.

This image will automatically update daily.

Winter Weather Alerts and Premium Forum

Winter-only text alerts and premium forum options for the 2019-2020 Winter are now available for purchase. A nominal one-time fee will bring you detailed alerts throughout the Winter between November 1st, 2019 and March 31st, 2020, or last snowfall. Visit http://epawaweather.com/winter-weather-alerts/ for full details, or simply click on the banner below.

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Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated: Friday November 8th, 11:15am