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Hot, muggy, and unsettled to start the
week, then seasonable temps to end it
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Long Range Outlook

Important information:

  • Ongoing discussions and comprehensive model analysis ahead of any storm threat is conducted exclusively in the EPAWA Premium Forum, and not publicly until a threat is imminent. To become part of the advanced discussion, and to get long range updates on Mondays and Wednesdays in addition to this Friday public update, visit http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ and select “Premium Weather Forum”.
  • The EPAWA app is available and is completely FREE and does not require a download from the app store. This is a progressive web app that replaced the old app in December. From a mobile device, simply open your browser and go to https://m.epawaweather.com/ and be sure to accept notifications and allow the app to detect your location for full functionality of the app. You then have the ability to save the PWA to your home screen, and it will work similar to a native app.
Screenshot (1)
DatesThreatsSignificanceConfidence
7/14-7/17TemperatureSlightly above to above averageVery high
7/18-7/20TemperatureNear averageHigh
7/21-7/24TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerately high
7/25-7/29TemperatureNear to slightly below averageModerately high
7/30-8/5TemperatureNear to slightly below averageModerate
8/6-8/12TemperatureSlightly above averageModerately low
7/14-7/15Isolated PM t-stormsAlthough the majority of areas will be dry over the weekend, there will be an opportunity for scattered t-storms Saturday evening across our far northern areas, and isolated farther south, and isolated thunderstorm chances on Sunday afternoon/evening in a few spots.High
7/17Scattered PM t-stormsAn organized area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely area-wide on Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, which will move through on Tuesday night. Depending on exact timing of the front, there maybe at least a marginal severe threat.High
7/21Scattered showers and t-stormsScattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as we approach the next Friday/Saturday time frame as part of an organized system moving through the Ohio Valley. Predictability is too low at this range for both timing and potential impacts.Moderately low
July as a wholeTemperatureSlightly above average (+2.0°F to +4.0°F)Moderately high
July as a wholePrecipitationNear to slightly below average (-0.5" to +0.0")Moderately high
August as a wholeTermperatureNear to slightly below average (-1.5°F to +0.0°F)Moderate
August as a wholePrecipitationSlightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5")Moderate

Outlook table last updated: Friday July 13th, 11:05am.  Next scheduled update: Friday July 27th. Week of July 20th public long range outlook will be skipped due to long range forecaster vacation and unavailability.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ 

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/LoEPAWA projection
July 14th87°F/69°FSlightly above average
July 21st87°F/70°FNear to slightly above average
July 28th87°F/70°FNear to slightly below average
August 4th87°F/69°FNear to slightly below average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Long range analysis: Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major rain or severe events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear our updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.

Precipitation Discussion:

Precipitation:

Mainly dry weather has been in place for the last couple of weeks, but that does look like it will change to a somewhat wetter pattern overall as we head into the 2nd half of July and first week of August. The most notable above average precipitation periods suggested by the ensemble guidance centers around the last week of July and first week of August. During this time, we expect a June-esque pattern to develop that will keep the wetter look in place.

Aside from isolated thunderstorms in spots over the weekend, the next organized activity will occur on Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front advancing toward the region. Scattered thunderstorms will likely affect the entire area from W to E during that time frame, and there could be some severe weather associated with it if the timing is right. Any threat will be updated in the shorter term in local forecasts and weather alerts, as needed as we get closer to the event.

The next chance for organized activity will come toward the end of the week, and modeled timing differences exist at this range on whether this a Friday or Saturday threat, or both. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible during this time frame, but exact specifics regarding timing and impacts are speculative at this range, and will be handled on a shorter-term basis with local forecasts beginning next week.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

July 16th-July 22nd: Near to slightly above average

July 23rd-July 29th: Near to slightly above average

July 30th-August 5th: Slightly above average

August 6th-August 12th: Near average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather or snowfall on the weather alerts page throughout the Winter:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The 3km NAM for Saturday evening at 8:00pm shows a line of storms crossing into northern PA from southern NY, but these will begin to die off after sunset as they push farther SE. More isolated activity is possible Sunday afternoon.

nam3

The GFS shows a cold front advancing toward the region on Tuesday, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely region-wide during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front itself will clear the region overnight.

gfs1

Pattern Discussion:

Pattern:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently phase 5, and has been in that octant for about a week. In the coming week, eastward propagation into phase 6 is forecast. Typically these phases combined with a +AAM will yield cooler than average temperatures for the northern Plains and Midwest, but the onset has been delayed due to the track of Typhoon Maria in the Pacific, which made landfall in eastern China within the past two days. This typhoon halfway across the globe affected the jet stream enough to allow for the cooler periods to be delayed a bit longer. Eventually, phase 6 cooler anomalies will win out toward the end of July and early August.

Another warmer than average period is expected this weekend into early next week, before a cold front and associated trough ends the heat on Tuesday. Behind the front, more seasonable weather is expected for several days, with slight moderation possible the following weekend. Cooler risks begin to show up in the late July and early August time frame as the MJO reaches phase 6, but at present time, nothing looks overwhelmingly cool – mostly near to slightly below average as the core of the cooler anomalies remain in the northern Plains and Midwest, and to some extent, the Ohio Valley region.

July is projected to be a near to slightly above average month (+2.0°F to +4.0°F) when the dust settles at the end of the month. Warmer than average temperature departures during the first two weeks of July will likely offset any late month cooler risks. For the month of August we listed slightly below average temperatures (-1.5°F to +0.0°F) as supported by climate models and leading analogs chosen for the Summer months, and cooler risks shown on the ensemble guidance to at least begin the month.

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The latest GEFS ensembles show the warmth in place through Tuesday, with the circled/highlighted trough with cooler air in the upper Plains expected to move southeastward into our region in the middle of next week.

gefs2

The same GEFS shows a trough moving in toward the end of July that has a bit more staying power, and is not expected to be transient. It is likely that we see near to slightly below average temperatures from late July into early August.

gefs3

Next 3 weeks of US temperature departures

Images below are clickable for better viewing

Days 1-5 – confidence VERY HIGH

1-5

Days 6-10 – confidence HIGH

6-10

Days 11-15 – confidence MODERATELY HIGH

11-15

Days 16-20 – confidence MODERATE

16-20

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest Soil Moisture Anomaly for the Contiguous United States. This is used by NOAA/CPC for the purpose of drought monitoring and drought outlooks.

This image will automatically update daily.

My Pocket Meteorologist

The My Pocket Meteorologist text alert program is a year-round program, and seasonal options for Spring/Summer will be available soon. Click on the image below for more information.

mpm3

Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated:  Friday July 13th, 11:05am