Precipitation:
OVERVIEW: The month of January will likely finish with slightly above average precipitation and below average snowfall…and in most southeastern areas, there has yet to be measurable snowfall, most notably nearest the I-95 corridor in PA, DE, and NJ and points SE toward the coast. Going forward into February, there will be two potential systems moving through the region in the next week, and combined with the expected colder/below average temperatures at that time, both could have wintry implications for parts of the region. Looking at the month of February as a whole suggests a slightly above to above average precipitation departure (+0.5″ to +1.5″) with near average snowfall as our current projection.
Shorter term, a weak cold front crosses the region Sunday night, which is followed by a secondary front on the lead of the cold air that will follow on Monday. On both occasions, a few isolated rain showers are possible, but rather insignificant. As a boundary becomes established south of the region Tuesday, a wave of low pressure may ride along the boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. If the boundary is close enough, parts of the area could see some light snow or snow showers from what would likely be a weaker low and overrunning event. It is possible the cold overwhelms and keeps the boundary farther to the south, which would result in any precipitation remaining suppressed to our south as well. A winter storm signal was maintained this week for the February 4th/5th time frame with a possible coastal storm, but the highly uncertain track at this point will rely on speed and position of several key features in order to produce snow for this region. Cold air will likely be firmly in place at this time, so that doesn’t appear to be an issue. An additional storm signal, although not necessarily wintry with more marginal temperatures at that time, may present itself in the February 9th/10th period and was added this week.
The month of January we project to finish with a slightly above average (+0.0″ to +1.0″) precipitation departure for the month as a whole, using longer term climate models and global observation trends. Snowfall will finish below average in the interior, with SE and coastal regions seeing nothing at all this month. February’s projection is for a wet month, slightly above to above average (+0.5″ to +1.5″) precipitation departure for the month as a whole with near average snowfall.
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EPAWA Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/epawawx/
Meteorologist Bobby Martrich [EPAWA] on Twitter: https://twitter.com/epawawx
YouTube channel/daily forecast video: https://www.youtube.com/user/eastpaweather
Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
January 28th – February 3rd: Slightly below average
February 4th – February 10th: Near to slightly above average
February 11th – February 18th: Slightly above average
February 19th – February 25th: Slightly above to above average
February 26th – March 4th: Slightly above average
March 5th – March 11th: Near to slightly above average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
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