Precipitation:
OVERVIEW: The wetter than average start to May continues to carry the above average anomalies to this point of the month. With two cold fronts expected to be the only remaining threats this month, May projection of slightly above average precipitation (+0.5″ to +1.5″) with this week’s outlook, with very high confidence. Long range climate guidance continues to suggest a near to perhaps very slightly above average precipitation departure in June, and with the increase in temperatures and humidity that comes with the transition from late Spring to Summer, thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall that can accompany them will become more prevalent with time. It is important to note that while localized heavy rainfall from thunderstorms can skew monthly averages on a local level, the monthly projection will be variable across the region and not indicative of an active precipitation pattern overall during the month of June.
Shorter term, the next chance for precipitation is the current system, which is a cold front that will work through the region on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rainfall will pass through the region over several rounds today. As the front clears overnight, a trailing upper level low will move through the region on Saturday, and after leftover morning showers for the interior, the upper level low could spark isolated to widely scattered showers or a thunderstorm in spots, but more of the hit-or-miss and pop-up variety for the remainder of the day. After a dry stretch Sunday through Wednesday of next week, the next cold front arrives next Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The month of May we project will finish with slightly above average (+0.5″ to +1.5″) precipitation departures for the month as a whole with very high confidence. Looking ahead to the month of June suggests a near to slightly above average (+0.0″ to +1.0″) precipitation departure for the month as a whole using longer term climate models and global observation trends. July precipitation projections will be included with the next scheduled long range outlook update on June 10th.
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Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
May 28th – June 3rd: Near to slightly below average
June 4th – June 10th: Near average
June 11th – June 17th: Near to slightly above average
June 18th – June 24th: Near average
June 25th – July 1st: Near average
July 2nd – July 8th: Near to slightly above average
Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing