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| Dates | Threats | Significance | Confidence |
| 9/16-9/22 | Temperature | Slightly above average | Very high |
| 9/23-9/27 | Temperature | Above average | High |
| 9/28-10/1 | Temperature | Slightly below average | Moderately high |
| 10/2-10/8 | Temperature | Near to slightly below average | Moderate |
| 10/9-10/15 | Temperature | Near to slightly above average | Moderately low |
| 9/19-9/20 | Hurricane Jose | Hurricane Jose is expected to remain offshore, but may be close enough to graze coastal sections with showers in association with the outer bands. Plenty of clouds are expected even in inland areas during this time frame, and will be watched closely for track changes. | Moderately high |
| September as a whole | Temperature | Below average (-2.5°F to -1.5°F) | Moderately high |
| September as a whole | Precipitation | Near average (-1.0" to +1.0") | Moderately high |
| October as a whole | Temperature | Slightly above average (+0.5°F to +1.5°F) | Moderate |
| October as a whole | Precipitation | Slightly above average (+0.5" to +1.5") | Moderate |
Outlook table last updated: Friday September 15th, 11:00am. Next update: Friday September 22nd.
This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/
*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:
| Date | Average Hi/Lo | EPAWA projection |
| September 16th | 78°F/60°F | Slightly above average |
| September 23rd | 75°F/58°F | Above average |
| September 30th | 72°F/54°F | Slightly below average |
| October 7th | 70°F/52°F | Near to slightly below average |
The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.
Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major rain or severe events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear our updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.
Precipitation:
The forecast period starts off relatively dry, and is largely expected to remain that way for the next 7-10 days. We will be watching closely the progress of Hurricane Jose, or what is expected to re-intensify into a hurricane again later Friday, as it may come close enough to affect at least eastern and coastal sections of the coverage area later Tuesday into Wednesday.
Currently the thinking is that this system remains largely offshore with track, but may come close enough (within 250 miles give or take) of the shore points to allow the outer bands of Jose to reach at least the shore points of NJ, DE, and MD. This would likely result in showers along those aforementioned shore points, and perhaps surviving farther inland, but not too far inland. Breezy conditions could accompany those showers, but high winds are not expected as the low center will be far enough offshore we think to keep the highest winds away from the shore points.
Aside from the threat of Jose within the next 7-10 days, the upcoming pattern supports ridging and anomalously drier conditions.
Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:
September 16th-September 22nd: Below average, except for near the coast where Jose may play a glancing role
September 23rd-September 29th: Near average
September 30th-October 6th: Slightly above average
October 7th-October 13th: Near average
All public/freely available maps will be updated when the threat is imminent for severe weather on the weather alerts page throughout the Spring and Summer: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/
Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing
The NAM vorticity shows the trough remnants of the former Hurricane Irma still lurking this weekend in the upper levels, but this will result in nothing more than an isolated passing shower each afternoon, and most areas remain dry.
The latest 06z GFS (with ECMWF agreement) shows what is expected to be once again Hurricane Jose coming within a few hundred miles of the NJ/DE/MD coastline, which could provide fringe impacts Tuesday into Wednesday.
Pattern:
The period will start off anomalously warmer than average with a ridge influencing our weather for the next several days. This will result in temperatures similar to what we have been seeing recently, and at slightly above average temperatures for this time of year.
Another stronger ridge will build in the Plains states toward the middle of next week, and is then expected to propagate eastward from there. Although the highest temperature anomalies are forecast to remain northwest of the region, enough of an influence will be felt from that ridge to yield above average temperatures for several days leading into next weekend and beyond.
A trough is due to arrive on or around the 28th, preceded by a cold front on or around the 27th of the month, which will end the above average stretch and instead replace it with slightly below average temperatures.
The latest Euro weeklies suggest a near to slightly below average period to begin the month of October, and then moderating slightly in week 4, which would coincide with the 2nd week of October.
September as a whole we think averages below average in most locales (-2.5°F to -1.5°F) when the dust settles September 30th, with moderately high confidence. The cooler first half of the month will not be entirely mitigated, but will be offset some by month’s end. The early October outlook suggests a slightly above average month for the first full month of Autumn, but will likely begin near average for the first half.
Note: Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing
The GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows the anomalous warmth expected for not only the near term, but lasting for quite a while. This image shows the above average period expected next weekend, and likely a few days beyond next weekend.
The same GEFS has been adjusting to the ECMWF/EPS in the longer range with a trough settling in during the middle of the following week, but the EPS is more impressive than the GEFS with the cooler temperatures behind it.
Images below are clickable for better viewing
Days 1-5 outlook – confidence HIGH:
Days 6-10 outlook – confidence MODERATELY HIGH:
Days 11-15 outlook – confidence MODERATE:
Days 16-20 outlook – confidence MODERATELY LOW:
Below is a look at the latest soil moisture anomaly, which is an integral part of drought outlooks. Reds and oranges represent below normal soil moisture levels, greens represent above normal values.
This image will automatically update daily.
The My Pocket Meteorologist text alert program gearing up for the upcoming severe season. Seasonal options will be available beginning March 31st. Click on the image below for more information.
Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated: Friday September 15th, 11:00am
