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Signs of change on the horizon with
cooler days outweighing the warm
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Long Range Outlooks

DatesThreatsSignificanceConfidence
4/29TemperatureWell above averageVery high
4/30TemperatureSlightly above averageVery high
5/1TemperatureWell above averageVery high
5/2-5/3TemperatureAbove averageHigh
5/4-5/7TemperatureNear to slightly below averageModerately high
5/8-5/14TemperatureNear to slightly above averageModerate
5/15-5/21TemperatureNear averageModerate
5/22-5/28TemperatureSlightly above averageModerately low
5/2Cold frontA cold front moves through Monday night or early Tuesday with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along and ahead of the frontal boundaryHigh
5/4-5/5RainLow pressure or a series of low pressure waves could bring steady rain to the region in the Thursday and Friday time frame of next week, potential for heavy rain existsModerately high
April as a wholeTemperatureAbove averageVery high
April as a wholePrecipitationSlightly below averageVery high
May as a wholeTemperatureSlightly above averageModerately high
May as a wholePrecipitationSlightly below averageModerately high

Outlook table last updated: Friday April 28th, 9:50am. Next update: Friday May 5th.

This is a weekly updated public long range guidance product from EPAWA. For daily long range updates and more detailed updates M-F, please join the EPAWA forum. More information/sign-up at: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist/ 

*Indications of above or below average temperatures in the table above are relative to what is considered “normal” using data collected over the long term for a particular date. This is collected and maintained by the National Climatic Data Center in conjunction with the National Weather Service actual data from previous years collected at official ASOS/climatology stations across our coverage area. Also note that as time moves forward into a different period as shown above, average temperatures for those dates will also change. See the example below using Philadelphia, PA as the climo station:

DateAverage Hi/LoEPAWA projection
April 29th69°F/49°FWell above average
May 6th71°F/51°FNear to slightly below average
May 13th73°F/53°FNear to slightly above average

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Long range analysis: Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major rain or severe events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear our updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the “Premium Weather Forum” option.

Precipitation Discussion:

Precipitation:

The next several days will see just a slight chance for a passing shower or storm, mainly over the weekend. At no point is the precipitation expectations significant, and the threat remains isolated at any given location.

Next chance for anything organized comes Monday night/early Tuesday, with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm ahead of a cold front. But overall, this is a fast moving round of precipitation, and in most cases under 1/2″ total rainfall. The GFS is a bit more thrilled than the ECMWF with extent of precipitation.

A late week system or series of low pressure will affect the region later in the week, and has the potential to bring steady, if not locally heavy rainfall. Given the range we are looking at, this will be adjusted and honed in on with more specificity as we get closer to the event. But potential exists for a multi-day rainfall event that also keeps temperatures below normal while the system is affecting the region.

All public/freely available maps will be updated when the threat is imminent for severe weather on the weather alerts page throughout the Spring and Summer: http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

 

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The GFS shows the cold front passage Monday night overnight, with scattered showers/thunderstorms possible along and ahead of it. The delayed front timing allows all of Monday to be dry.

gfs2

The same GFS, in close agreement with the ECMWF camp, shows low pressure affecting the region in the Thursday/Friday time frame, with locally heavy rain possible (track dependent)

gfs3

Pattern Discussion:

Pattern:

After several warm days to end April and start the new month, we will be taking a step back in temperatures with a late week system expected to affect the region. This is in part due to a -NAO signature that has been consistently showing on the ensemble guidance over the past several runs. This is typically an ideal pattern that you’d want to see if you’re a snow lover in Winter, but not so much what you’d want to see in the middle of Spring. While we’re nearly two months removed from snow concerns, this will still allow for a coastal system to take shape that will keep temperatures below normal for a few days while the system is in the vicinity.

Going forward, the pattern looks more seasonable. The ECMWF weeklies have been consistent in showing a cooler May than originally projected, which will likely still settle at slightly above normal temperature departures by months’ end. While temperature “normal” temperatures will be going up with time, we can expect for the core of May, namely weeks 2 and 3, to hover near normal in the temperature department. Week 2 has unanimous model support to be near normal temperatures, but this also has the opportunity to average at least slightly above normal during this week as tropical forcing shifts to phase 8 and 1, which supports a warmer than average temperatures regime in the midwest and NE US. There are signals that as we head into the latter part of the month, especially week 4, there will be another flex of the southeast ridge that will enable above normal temperatures to be more common. This will be right on time as we look forward to the opening of beach season in late May toward Memorial Day weekend.

Note:  Any image in the outlook is clickable for larger viewing

The GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows a -NAO signal toward the end of next week, which allows a deep trough to dig into the NE US. The slightly below average temperatures will coincide with low pressure in the vicinity at that time, bringing rain to the region. 

gefs3

The same GEFS (pictured) and most other ensemble groups suggest a near average week 2 of May, but with the MJO headed into a phase 8 and phase 1 look, this supports temperatures that are above average. We will monitor for changes in the next outlook.

gefs4

EPAWA 1-5 day temperature departure outlook

1-5

EPAWA 6-10 day temperature departure outlook

6-10

EPAWA 11-15 day temperature departure outlook

11-15

EPAWA 16-20 day temperature departure outlook

16-20

Current U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

Below is a look at the latest soil moisture anomaly, which is an integral part of drought outlooks. Reds and oranges represent below normal soil moisture levels, greens represent above normal values.

This image will automatically update daily.

My Pocket Meteorologist

The My Pocket Meteorologist text alert program gearing up for the upcoming severe season. Seasonal options will be available beginning March 31st. Click on the image below for more information.

mpm3

Forecaster: EPAWA Meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Discussion last updated:  Friday April 28th, 9:50am