EPAWA's long range outlook is updated weekly every Friday morning before noon

Long range outlook last updated: Friday March 14th, 2025, 9:30 AM

Technical discussion is below for advanced readers:

Technical discussion below will feature two (2) subcategories: Precipitation, and Pattern Discussion. Storm possibilities will be discussed exclusively in the Premium Forum with intense model analysis leading up to any major snow, ice, or rain events, not publicly. To join this discussion and hear the updated thoughts from our team, visit The My Pocket Meteorologist Page by clicking HERE and select the "Premium Weather Forum" option.

Precipitation Discussion

OVERVIEW: The US drought monitor (photo toward the bottom of this outlook) has maintained the moderate to severe drought areas over much of our region as of their latest update, and the severe drought category includes parts of interior Southern New Jersey, parts of East Central PA and Southeast PA, Eastern Maryland, and northern Delaware. Also maintained was the extreme drought designation in coastal Southern New Jersey. This has been maintained since precipitation was generally near average in December (not enough to offset the extreme deficits of the Autumn months) and was followed by a solidly below average precipitation departure in January, then near average or close to it in February. For the month of March, projections were maintained this week for a near average precipitation (-0.5" to +0.5") departure for the month as a whole, along with a below average (or more likely none) snowfall projection. The month of April projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0" to +0.5") precipitation departure, and a near average snowfall projection...although snow in April is typically very minor and less than 1" in most locations.

Shorter term, a strong cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon and evening. A strong co-aligned low-level jet will accompany the front, and a strong southerly flow will develop during the day ahead of the front leading to windy conditions. Rain and perhaps a stronger line of low-topped thunderstorms will be possible later in the afternoon or evening, with stronger wind gusts possible with any thunderstorm activity as the primary severe mode. Another cold front will follow on Thursday of next week with scattered PM showers and/or thunderstorms possible, and a similar front will follow in the following Tuesday time frame with showers/thunderstorms again possible ahead of the boundary.

The projection for the month of March was maintained this week to a near average (-0.5" to +0.5") precipitation departure for the month as a whole. Currently precipitation departures are slightly below average to this point of the month of March, however we expect an uptick in precipitation over the remainder of the month that should get most areas closer to average precipitation by month's end. We also project below average snowfall for March or more likely, none at all. The month of April projections were maintained this week for a near to slightly above average (0.0" to +0.5") precipitation departure for the month using longer term climate models as well as seasonal trends. We also expect snowfall to be near average, but most areas climatologically average less than 1" of snow in April on a 30-year average.

Breakdown of precipitation departures from normal over the next several weeks:

March 15th - March 21st: Near to slightly above average

March 22nd - March 28th: Near to slightly above average

March 29th - April 4th: Near average

April 5th - April 11th: Near to slightly above average

April 12th - April 18th: Near average

April 19th - April 25th: Near average

Public/free available maps will be updated when a threat is imminent for significant weather on the weather alerts page throughout the year:  http://epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing  

Pattern Discussion

OVERVIEW:  The month of March projections were slightly adjusted this week to a slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure, with a foretaste of Spring remaining at times over the next 7-10 days. A general up and down temperature pattern is expected after mid-month typical of March transitional [to Spring] behavior. The month of April projections were also slightly adjusted this week to a slightly below average (0.0°F to -2.0°F) temperature departure using longer term climate guidance and global observation trends.

• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 2 in the Indian Ocean, which is a typically a milder (overall) phase in a -ENSO during the month of March. It is expected to move into phase 3 over the weekend, and is likely to continue into the Circle of death for several days next week before emerging in phase 6 during the last week of March. This type of progression usually favors milder (overall) temperatures, especially with phase 6 forcing which would be evident in April, however the effects of the MJO will likely be muted and offset by ongoing stratospheric changes (see below) that will instead lead to cooler than average conditions.
• As has been the case over several recent years in the late-Winter periods, a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) over the polar regions has initiated currently that will allow cooler temperatures to be forced southward and into the lower latitudes. This is a time-delayed process to feel the effects locally to our sensible weather with a propagation downward to the troposphere where our sensible weather occurs. This likely leads to cooler temperatures relative to average from late March and through much of April, and plays a large role in re-establishing a blocking pattern that keeps the pattern sustainable. This is of course relative to average highs in April, which typically sees highs getting into the 60s, so while it won't be "cold" per se, it will be cooler than it should be during the month of April. There are still questions as to the extent of the cooler temperature influence and its longevity, but more recent guidance suggests the warming over the pole will sustain for several weeks. It is a safer bet to say that it appears as though Spring will begin with a cooler than average overall theme this year in large part due to these stratospheric changes. 
• A composite average of the SST departures in the ENSO regions places it in ENSO neutral territory, and while the Climate Prediction Center hasn't officially proclaimed the change, we can see that the observed Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) are very notably rising just within the past several weeks. The Niño 1+2 region (eastern Pacific) remains the warmest of the 4 ENSO regions at +1.6°C this week, and the ENSO 4 region is currently the coldest near -0.5°C. The ENSO regions 3 and 3.4 are on the positive side of neutral, with the ENSO 3 region in El Niño territory. This background state when combined with tropical forcing and intra-seasonal teleconnections can allow for the up and down temperature pattern in March, but any colder periods are less effective and infrequent typically - however the stratospheric changes mentioned above will have a cooler effect on April most likely.

Average high temperatures are currently in the 47-52 °F range from north to south across our coverage region, which is about 2°F higher than at this point last week. Average high and low temperature increases will begin to accelerate past mid-March and continues in April. Any above or below average stretches listed in the outlook will be relative to seasonal norms at that time, and it is important to note that cooler/warmer periods will be relative to the time of year we are talking about. For example, the slightly above to above average temperatures listed for March 18th-20th generally features highs well into the 60s and in some areas reaching 70, coming at a time when average highs are generally in the lower 50s. Use the average highs/lows chart below providing a point of reference for what average is at each corresponding location through April 30th.

March projections were slightly adjusted this week to slightly above average (+1.0°F to +3.0°F) temperature departure from average. This is due to the milder than average temperature stretch expected at times through about the 25th of the month, and slightly above average temperatures observed currently to this point of March. The month of April projection was also slightly adjusted this week to a slightly below average (-1.0°F to -3.0°F) temperature departure, using longer term climate guidance and global observation trends, and largely due to the initiation of the aforementioned SSW.

Note:  Any image below is clickable for larger viewing

Long Range Outlook Table

Climatology

The departure from normal uses the average temperature for the date, averaging temps over 24 hours for any given location, using both high and low temperatures hourly during any particular day. This outlook determines warm vs. cool periods relative to normal temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Graphical Products

These products are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and do not necessarily reflect the EPAWA forecast which is detailed above. All images below update automatically as the CPC releases new graphical products

U.S. Soil Moisture Anomaly

US drought monitor (NE US)