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Unsettled on several occasions this
week, with a few breaks in between
Get the Forecast!

Extended heat wave? This one could last awhile…

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Several pieces of medium and long range guidance are suggesting the switch will be flipped to the dog days of summer almost on queue… climatologically speaking, the hottest period across our region from mid-July onward looks to be true to form.  

This heat wave looks to begin just in time for the weekend, and in large part due to a building ridge in the middle of the country. While the NW part of the country cools off, the rest of us bake:

gfs8

Saturday looks to be the beginning of what could be a long stretch of above normal temperatures after a warm front pushes through Friday night. This will bring back the humidity and instability, so Saturday’s isolated late day storms will have some potential to be rogue severe if they can get going.

According to the GFS and GEFS (which are the most aggressive with the heat) we could be talking about 90°F+ for many areas during that stretch.  Here is a look at forecast high temperatures for our entire forecast region, beginning with Saturday and ending next Friday: 

Saturday July 18th max temps:

gfs1

Sunday July 19th max temps:

gfs2

Monday July 20th max temps:

gfs3

Tuesday July 21st max temps:

gfs4

Wednesday July 22nd max temps:

gfs5

Thursday July 23rd max temps:

gfs6

Friday July 24th max temps:

gfs7

Hourly max temps for the next 10 days at KPHL/Philadelphia Int'l Airport, PA:

phl

A cold front Monday could send temps back toward normal for a few days if the latest ECMWF guidance, which is not as aggressive as the GFS, is correct. Both agree, however, that the end of next week bakes regardless, with widespread 90°F+ and humidity heading into next weekend. 

 

We will focus on this weekend first, and below are the expectations for high temperatures for select locations within the EPAWA coverage area, for both Saturday and Sunday per EPAWA projections:

Select Pennsylvania Locations

CitiesSaturdaySunday
Allentown90F92F
Doylestown91F93F
Harrisburg91F93F
Lancaster91F93F
Philadelphia92F94F
Mt. Pocono80F84F
Pottstown90F93F
Quakertown90F92F
Reading91F93F
Scranton86F89F
Selinsgrove87F90F
Williamsport86F89F
York91F94F

Select New Jersey Locations

CitiesSaturdaySunday
Atlantic City85F87F
Belmar85F88F
Caldwell86F89F
Morristown89F92F
Mt Holly89F92F
Sussex86F89F
Trenton91F93F
Wildwood85F87F

Select Delaware Locations

CitiesSaturdaySunday
Dover90F92F
Georgetown91F93F
Wilmington91F93F
Rehoboth Beach85F87F

Forecaster:  Martrich 15JUL1935z

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